JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 3:05 PM EDT725
FXUS63 KJKL 251905
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
305 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A passing cold front will bring increased rain and storm chances
to the area this evening.
- Temperatures will drop to near or slightly below normal for the
weekend before moderating to back above normal through the
middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2024
The afternoon surface analysis shows a cold front still to our
northwest. The boundary along with an upper level wave will push
across the Ohio Valley tonight. We are seeing some rain showers
moving eastward into central Kentucky this afternoon and these
will slowly push eastward later this afternoon and evening. Given
some uncertainty on coverage will keep rain chances in the chance
(around 30-40 percent) range for most locations. Also, while you
can't rule out some thunder will cap this at slight (less than 20
percent) given the lack of instability and chances of seeing ice
in the clouds is on the lower side based off most of the forecast
sounding data. Outside this expect some lingering lower stratus
late tonight into early Saturday before mixing out through the
late morning.
Saturday, we will see another round of cooler weather take hold,
as high pressure pushes east in the wake of the cold front. This
will give way northerly flow at the surface and keep afternoon
highs in the low to mid 60s, which is closer to normal for this
time of year. This surface high will crest across the Ohio Valley
Saturday night paving the way for a solid radiational cooling
night especially in the evening and late evening. After this,
there is some concerns of at least some high clouds noted in the
HREF due to a mid-level wave that could mitigate or at least
steady out the temperature drops going into Sunday morning.
However, still looks like lows drop into the low to mid 30s in
the valleys and mid to upper 30s on the ridges. Given this could
see at least some light frost depending on the cloud cover and
also some patchy fog can't be ruled out either especially around
the river valleys.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2024
The latest model data remains consistent with the large scale flow
pattern in the extended portion of the forecast across the CONUS.
High pressure in place over the eastern half of the nation will rule
the roost from Sunday through most of Thursday. During that time,
conditions will be favorable for well defined ridge valley
temperature differences, and formation of late night and early
morning fog. The fog could become dense at times in our cooler and
more sheltered valleys. The ridge will finally begin to move off to
our east toward the end of next week, as an area of low pressure
moves our way out of the Great Plains. This system will bring
isolated to scattered rain showers to eastern Kentucky beginning
Thursday afternoon lasting into the day on Friday.
After starting out below normal on Sunday, daily highs should reach
above normal values in the 70s each day after that, with the warmest
days, Wednesday and Thursday, perhaps rising into the upper 70s
around the area. These temperatures will be reachable due to ample
sunshine and a shift to southerly flow warming the air mass that
will be in place more than it normally would be. Nightly lows will
start of a bit cold, in the 30s around the area, but will warm into
the 40s and 50s from Monday onward. Aside from isolated instances of
fog that could lead to low visibility, no weather hazards are
expected in the forecast for next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2024
A warm front has been pushing across the area bring mainly some
mid and at times lower cloud deck across the area. Overall this
has remained in the VFR range. We will see a cold front and upper
level wave push across the Ohio Valley and bring a round of
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to the area mainly late this
afternoon and into tonight. This could lead to localized lowering
of Cigs and Vis in any heavier showers that develop, but given
the uncertainty on this will leave out of the TAF sites for now.
There is the chance we will see some post frontal stratus and
lowers Cigs late tonight into Saturday morning, with the HREF
indicating a 60 percent chance or greater of lower than 3 kft cigs
at JKL, LOZ, and SJS. Given this opted to have lower end MVFR at
all the sites, with least confidence at SYM. The winds have been
more muddled this afternoon with the clouds, but still a shot for
a few gusts in the 15 knots range through the afternoon. The winds
will shift tomorrow out of the north at 5 to 10 knots.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 3:05 PM EDT---------------
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