LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 3:10 PM EDT761
FXUS63 KLMK 261910
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
310 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Seasonable temperatures and dry weather tonight into Sunday.
* Breezy and unseasonably warm Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Confidence in beneficial rain on Thursday and Thursday night
continues to increase. No severe storms expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024
Synopsis...An upper-level shortwave trough will swing across the
northeast U.S. and the Canadian Maritimes during the short term
forecast period with broad NW flow regime present across the Ohio/TN
valleys. Surface high pressure centered near the Quad Cities this
afternoon will move fairly quickly east across the lower Great Lakes
over the next 24-36 hours. As the high travels to the north of our
area, low-level NE flow will advect drier and cooler air through
tonight, when winds begin to veer more easterly as we head into the
day on Sunday. The H85 ridge axis will be centered over the area
tomorrow afternoon, with warm low-level return flow not expected to
begin until after the short term period.
This afternoon and tonight...Clouds will continue to linger along
and south of the Cumberland Parkway over the next several hours,
which has helped to keep temperatures down across south central KY.
As drier air around 5 kft AGL moves in from the north, these clouds
should gradually dissipate by around sunset, with mostly clear skies
expected during the early evening hours. With the sfc high moving
closer to the area this evening, winds will start to ease by around
sunset, though a persistent light NE wind should continue outside of
sheltered valleys overnight. Passing upper clouds will occasionally
obscure the moon, particularly after midnight tonight, though these
clouds should not inhibit radiational cooling. Low temperatures
Sunday morning should vary from north to south across the FA, with
mid-to-upper 30s expected across northern KY and southern IN and
lower 40s expected across southern KY.
Sunday...Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue into
tomorrow as the sfc high passes to the north of the area. Winds
should be light out of the east around 5-10 mph. With 850 mb temps
largely unchanged from today, expect a near-persistence forecast
with temperatures, except possibly across southern KY where clouds
will not be an issue tomorrow. Highs should range from the low-mid
60s north of I-64 to the upper 60s to around 70 along the TN border.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024
Sunday Night through Wednesday:
Upper ridging will build over the southeast CONUS through the first
half of next week, with increasing low-level return flow as strong
sfc high pressure retreats off the East Coast. After a chilly start,
Monday will warm solidly into the 70s, with near-record highs in the
lower 80s possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Tightening pressure
gradient will crank SW winds up to 15-20 mph both days with 30 mph
gusts at times.
Thursday through Saturday:
A low-amplitude upper wave will push into the Great Lakes on
Thursday and eventually into New England late Friday, with a sfc
cold front dropping through the Ohio Valley late Thursday or
Thursday night. Will see a fairly narrow corridor of ample moisture
coinciding with the sfc front, so confidence is fairly high that
we'll have rain, with the main uncertainty hinging on timing. Main
bust potential is whether it rains Thursday or Thursday night, with
most areas getting about a half inch of total rainfall. Not
expecting any severe weather, as there is barely enough instability
to even get thunder.
We'll dry out on Friday as the upper pattern flattens out and strong
sfc high pressure settles over the Great Lakes. Even though it's a
relative cooldown, temps will run near normal Thu-Fri, and several
degrees warmer on Saturday even in the face of a slight chance for
showers as a weak warm front lifts north.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024
High MVFR/low VFR stratus deck continues to clear from north to
south early this afternoon, with SDF and LEX clearing over the past
few hours. Would expect RGA and BWG to clear later this afternoon as
drier air continues to push in from the north. Behind this area of
clouds, stronger sustained NE winds with a few gusts around 20 kt
have been observed, so have increased winds/gusts at SDF/HNB over
the next few hours. Winds should gradually decrease later this
evening, veering toward the ENE by Sunday morning. VFR conditions
are expected through the remainder of the current forecast period,
with little more than SCT-BKN high clouds expected overnight tonight.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...CSG
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 3:10 PM EDT---------------
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