LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 8:04 PM EDT585
FXUS63 KLMK 260004
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
804 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A cold front will bring scattered showers to the region this
afternoon and tonight.
* Seasonable temps and dry weather expected this weekend, with a
warm-up and breezy conditions for early next week.
* Rain chances return around Halloween into the first few days of
November.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 803 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024
Skies are partly to mostly cloudy this evening. A cold front is
sinking southeast through the forecast area, and we've had some
scattered shower activity in the Bluegrass. Thunder seems pretty
unlikely at this point in time, and the window is closing fast.
Additional isolated light shower activity will be possible tonight
in the Bluegrass, and extending west across portions of central and
southern KY.
The cold front and plume of low to mid-level moisture will move
north to south through central KY overnight into early Saturday
morning. Even around and shortly after daybreak, cannot rule out
very isolated rain in far southern KY. Increasing northerly winds
Saturday morning will advect cooler and drier air into the region in
the wake of the front. Saturday will be notably cooler with the
brisk north wind. Clouds will clear out from north to south
throughout the morning and afternoon hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024
Progressive shortwave trof aloft is deamplifying as it tries to push
a cold front into the Ohio Valley. A few radar echoes showing up
across southern Indiana and back into western Kentucky, but only
brief rain showers showing up in sfc obs as much of the precip is
evaporating before it reaches the ground.
Isolated rain chances will persist well into the evening as the
front pushes through, with the lack of deep moisture and ever weaker
forcing limiting both coverage and amounts. Main sensible wx impact
for most of the area will be a wind shift to the north, and a mid-
level ceiling. Thunder still can't be ruled out through mid-evening,
but most locations will be wondering where their rain is. Those that
do see rain can expect less than a tenth of an inch.
Post-frontal cold advection will keep the boundary layer mixy
overnight, preventing temps from bottoming out. Mins will be in the
50s for most, with upper 40s in play for southern Indiana. Skies
clear from north to south on Sat morning, but temps will be limited
to the mid/upper 60s, close to 20 degrees cooler than today but spot
on normal for this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024
Saturday Night - Sunday Night:
Surface high pressure will slide across the lower Great Lakes region
during the second half of the weekend, with a seasonably cool and
dry air mass overspreading central KY and southern IN during this
period. While the majority of the cold advection between the cold
front and the approaching high pressure will occur on Saturday,
light NE winds will continue into Sunday, keeping temperatures in
the 60s for most of the area Sunday afternoon. Chilly mornings are
expected on Sunday and Monday, with expected lows ranging from the
mid 30s in the coldest valleys to the low-mid 40s in the warmest
spots.
Monday - Wednesday:
Upper level ridging axis along the lee of the Rockies over the
weekend will translate toward the eastern one-third of North America
into early next week as an upper trough moves into the western CONUS
and amplifies. Surface high pressure will be east of the
Appalachians by next Monday, with low pressure extending along a
frontal boundary stretching from the southern Rockies up into the
upper Midwest. Southwesterly flow at the surface and aloft will
support a warming trend in temperatures through the early week
period, with above normal highs returning on Monday and continuing
through much of next week.
The upper trough over the western CONUS will be slow to move east
during the early and middle part of next week. This will keep warm
weather in place across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, with highs
in the upper 70s and lower 80s and lows in the 50s and lower 60s
expected next Tuesday and Wednesday. A strong gradient in pressures
and heights across the Mississippi and Ohio Valley will cause winds
to strengthen during this time period, though the ECMWF Extreme
Forecast Index suggests that the most anomalously strong winds are
favored to remain north and west of the region. Still, it should be
breezy during the middle of next week, with the current forecast
calling for SSW winds of 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
Halloween:
The upper trough over the western U.S. will eject to the northeast
next Wednesday into Thursday, sending the cold front which will
linger over the central Plains during the early week period toward
our area. Moisture will increase immediately ahead of the front,
with lifting along the front helping to bring a band of
precipitation into the region next Thursday into Thursday night.
With the trough and associated cold front weakening as it moves
across the region, the expectation is that precipitation amounts and
chances will decrease from west to east. Current NBM mean QPF values
back this up, ranging from around 0.50" over SW Indiana to only
around 0.10" over the Lake Cumberland and Bluegrass area. However,
the ensemble consensus is that subsequent disturbances late next
week into next weekend will bring additional precipitation chances
as we head into the beginning of November.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 803 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024
A cold front is sinking southeast through central KY this evening.
SCT-BKN mid clouds have been filling in this evening, while a mostly
VFR stratus deck extends north into central IL/IN on the cool side
of the boundary. This front, and a plume of low to mid-level
moisture, will sink south through central KY overnight into early
Saturday morning. Isolated to widely scattered light showers will be
possible during this time frame, with RGA standing the best chance
at seeing a brief shower both this evening and again during the
early morning hours.
Winds are forecast to veer northerly overnight in the wake of the
front. Ceilings will lower and remain just VFR for most of the
terminals, although brief MVFR ceilings are likely at BWG/RGA
Saturday morning. NE sfc wind will increase to around 12 kts by mid-
morning Sat, with clouds then forecast to clear from north to south
from mid-morning through the afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EBW
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...EBW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 8:04 PM EDT---------------
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