ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 4:02 AM EDT357
FXUS61 KILN 230802
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
402 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will continue today ahead of a cold
front that moves through the area this afternoon. Due to limited
moisture this front will only produce a few sprinkles. High
pressure will lead to dry conditions with a temporary cool down
Thursday, followed by a warm up for the end of the week. A
second cold front will move through the region on Friday
offering a chance for rain. High pressure and cooler more
seasonal temperatures are on tap for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An initial embedded shortwave to lift quickly northeast across
the Great Lakes into southern Ontario early this morning. An
axis of mainly mid level clouds will pass east thru ILN/s FA
early - leaving skies mostly sunny early.
A mid level trough will dig southeast across the Great Lakes
today. This will be accompanied by a surface cold front. The
front will pass southeast thru the area this afternoon. Moisture
is limited with this system and only expect mid and high level
clouds, although a few high based cumulus clouds could form near
and behind the front for a brief period. A few sprinkles are
possible with this frontal passage. High temperatures to range
from near 70 northwest to the upper 70s southeast.
Winds will increase and shift from the southwest to the
northwest as the front passes. Sustained winds will increase
between 10 and 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Mid level shortwave to drop quickly southeast thru the Great
Lakes and the Upper Ohio Valley this evening. Cannot rule out a
a few sprinkles over the southeast during the early evening.
Post frontal clouds to give way to clearing early as surface
high pressure builds into the area. Low temperatures will drop
to readings ranging from the upper 30s northwest to the lower
40s southeast.
Surface high pressure centered over the area will offer light
winds and sunny skies Thursday. Temperatures will be close to
normal with highs between 60 and 65.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Narrow H5 ridge in place Thursday night into Friday. Height rises
will promote warmer temperatures on Friday, climbing back into the
70s for most. This will be about 10 degrees above seasonal normals.
However, an approaching shortwave trough and associated surface cold
front will begin to approach on Friday. This will lead to PoPs in
the forecast, with better rain chances northwards towards central
OH. QPF footprint still not very impressive in models, suggesting
only a few hundredths of measurable rainfall for some.
Precip expected to dissipate Friday night as surface high pressure
builds in for the weekend. On Saturday, highs will trend near or
just below seasonal normals. Upper level trough will become a little
more amplified for Sunday and increase CAA, leading to slightly
cooler highs in the middle to upper 50s for most of our CWA.
H5 ridging builds in across the eastern CONUS for the beginning of
the work week. Dry conditions continue along with a warmer air mass
building into the region.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
A mid level disturbance will quickly lift northeast across the
Great Lakes. A band of mid level clouds will offer a brief
ceiling between 7000 and 9000 feet. Winds will be from the
south between 5 and 15 knots. A modest low level jet of 40-45kts
pivoting across the area will bring a period of non convective
LLWS. This should shift east and dissipate around 13Z.
A mid level trough will dig southeast across the Great Lakes.
This will be accompanied by a cold front. The front is moisture
is limited with this system and only expect mid and high level
clouds, although a few high based cumulus clouds could form near
and behind the front for a brief period. A sprinkle is possible
with this frontal passage.
Winds will increase and veer from the southwest to the
northwest as the front passes. Sustained winds will increase
between 12 and 16 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.
Behind the front - surface high pressure will build into the
area Wednesday night, skies will clear and winds will diminish
and become northerly.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Friday into Friday night.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 4:02 AM EDT---------------
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