IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 3:19 AM EDT414
FXUS63 KIWX 220719
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
319 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm, dry, and breezy conditions this afternoon will lead to
an elevated risk with any fire ignition in dead brush, dry
grass and any fields yet to be harvested.
- There is a good chance for light rain Thursday night into
Friday, Rainfall amounts should be light and are not expected
to have an impact on the worsening drought.
- Relatively mild for this time of year from Wednesday through
Friday, then turning cooler and dry this weekend with highs in
the 50s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
Overall the mild weather is expected to continue the rest of
the week with limited impactful weather other than an elevated
fire risk this afternoon. Given this more elevated risk, plan
to issue a Special Weather Statement to highlight this risk,
especially with dry grass, brush and any remaining fields that
have yet to be harvested.
It seems like a long time ago that the upper level low that is
now ejecting northeast into the Central Plains become cut off
over Arizona. This system produced all-time daily record
rainfall amounts in eastern New Mexico as the low finally moved
northeast. The low associated with all of the rain will continue
to weaken as it ejects northeast as an opening wave. Removed
the residual midweek rain chances associated with this low
yesterday. The midweek dry forecast appears on track as the GFS
BUFKIT shows an environment that is essentially too dry to
support any type of rain chance.
The best chance for rain through early next week is with a late week
system. Energy from a positively tilted trof over the eastern
Pacific will shear off and race east and over a flat ridge. This
system will not come on shore until after 12Z (8 AM EDT) Wednesday,
so believe upper air sampling of this system will not be optimal
until Wednesday evening. In this regard, feel this is still a
low confidence system regarding timing, strength and rainfall
amounts, so have been hesitant to make many changes to the
ongoing forecast.
Otherwise, in the big picture with the large positive anomaly well
out in the Pacific near 170w, strong teleconnections support a
significant upper level trof redeveloping over western North
America. CPC is so certain of this scenario that they placed
nearly all of the Upper Great Lakes region in a >80% probability
of temperatures above normal in their 8-14 day outlook, so there
is high confidence in temperatures rising much above normal early
next week after the cool weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
A weakening midlevel trough will eject NE over the region today,
encountering an increasingly dry and stable environment. As
such, only an increase in mid/upper level clouds is expected.
Tightening gradient associated with this system will bring an
increase in southerly winds with gusts up to 25 kts possible
this afternoon.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
Wednesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...AGD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 3:19 AM EDT---------------
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