LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 1:23 PM EDT034
FXUS63 KLMK 251723
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
123 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Today, a cold front will bring scattered showers to the region.
* Seasonable temps and dry weather expected this weekend, with a
warm-up and breezy conditions next week. The dry and breezy
weather will result in an elevated wildfire risk across the
region, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Rain chances return on Halloween, though at this time no
thunderstorms are expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024
Today, an upper level trough will push a cold front southeast
through the Lower Ohio Valley. The front which is extending south
from a surface low in Ontario will bring scattered showers to
southern Indiana and central Kentucky. There is a slight chance for
thunder, but model soundings continue to show very little
instability, and what is there, is elevated. These soundings also
show dry air near the surface which will limit rainfall totals for
some. The best chances for rain will likely be across the northern
half of the CWA, across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.
Still, most in this area will see less than 0.10" of rainfall. Areas
across south central Kentucky may only see a hundreth or two, if
they are one of the lucky ones.
Strong warm air advection will drive southern winds to around 10
mph, but gusts could reach to around 20 mph at times. This is
expected to lift highs into the mid 80s near Bowling Green. Those
farther north with the additional cloud cover and rain showers will
be limited closer to 80.
Tonight, as the front continues pushing south, winds will veer
towards the north behind the front as remaining showers work south
over southern Kentucky. With skies remaining mostly cloudy for most
of the night, cold air advection will drop temperatures into the mid
40s over southern Indiana to the mid 50s in southern Kentucky by
Saturday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024
The weekend:
A dome of high pressure advancing from Iowa to New Jersey will
provide the middle Ohio Valley with mostly clear/partly cloudy
skies, northeast breezes, and seasonable temperatures Saturday and
Sunday. High temperatures will be in the middle and upper 60s with
lows Sunday morning from the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Monday through Wednesday:
A meridional 5H pattern will develop during this time frame with a
trough over the western U.S. and a ridge in the east. This indicates
a warm and dry pattern for us, supported by our position between
surface high pressure along the East Coast and low pressure crossing
Canada with a trailing cold front passing through the Great Plains,
Midwest, and upper Great Lakes. Tuesday and Wednesday will be
particularly breezy and warm with highs around 80 on Tuesday and in
the low-mid 80s Wednesday while SSW winds occasionally gust over
25mph. Although current 10-hour fuel moisture is still in the 16-20%
range, we'll have to see how much rain we receive today/tonight, and
afternoon RH levels are forecast to only get down to around 40%
Tuesday and Wednesday, the wind and sun will certainly help to dry
out available fuels and increasing leaf litter, so people with fire
weather interests will still want to watch the forecast for Tuesday-
Wednesday.
Halloween:
There is decent run-to-run consistency and agreement among model
solutions suggesting rain will return on Thursday as the
aforementioned cold front approaches from the west with a good
connection to moisture from the western Gulf of Mexico. There are
still timing differences on when exactly the rain will arrive, but
general confidence in rain has increased enough to allow 30% (Lake
Cumberland) to 60% (southern Indiana) PoPs in the forecast for the
31st. HREF shows a 60-90% chance of measurable rainfall sometime
during the Thursday - Thursday night time frame, with a 20%-50%
chance of more than a quarter inch (greater amounts in southwest
Indiana, lesser amounts toward Lake Cumberland). The system will be
accompanied by high shear but very little instability and weak lapse
rates -- will leave thunder out of the forecast at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024
VFR conditions across the board today ahead of an approaching cold
front, which is working its way across the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Seeing a few warm advection showers trying to get going near the SW
corner of Indiana, but expect the main sensible wx with this front
to be mid-level ceilings and probably mostly virga. There's an
outside chance for a brief light rain shower, but probabilities are
too low for inclusion in the TAFs and impacts will be minimal if it
does happen.
Look for a wind shift to the north this evening, with a lower strato-
cu ceiling setting up beneath the frontal inversion. However, bases
should stay VFR, if only just barely. Skies will clear from north to
south early Sat morning, with winds picking up to around 12 kt from
the NNE.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...RAS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 1:23 PM EDT---------------
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