LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 2:22 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...135
FXUS63 KLMK 250622
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
222 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Friday will be a warm day with many locations reaching or
exceeding 80 degrees.
* A cold front Friday afternoon into Friday night will bring a
chance for scattered showers. Rain totals will be less than 1/10"
in most locations.
* Seasonable temps and dry weather expected this weekend, with a
warm-up and very windy conditions returning for the middle of
next week. The combination of continued dry conditions and windy
weather will result in an elevated wildfire risk across the
region, from Tuesday onward.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2024
Quiet evening with clear skies and light winds. High pressure will
continue to move out of the region in the overnight hours. As a
result, winds will veer to the southwest by tomorrow morning. A warm
air advection regime will set up over the region, allowing
temperatures to warm about 10 degrees more than today. Current
forecast remains on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2024
In the overnight hours, ridging will move east of the region and
surface high pressure will follow. This will result in veering
surface winds. Strong thunderstorms over Missouri, may bring some
convective debris clouds into the western CWA, which could limit
some cooling in these areas. Low temperatures in the morning will be
a wider range from the upper 40s and low 50s over the west to the
low 40s over the Bluegrass.
Friday, upper-level troughing will swing into the Ohio Valley,
sending a surface low pressure through central Indiana. The
associated cold front will move through the region beginning midday.
Along this front, widely scattered showers will move through the
region decreasing in coverage as it moves across the state. Moisture
is quite limited, therefore, QPF looks to be less than 0.25 inches
for areas that do receive rain. A few isolated thunderstorms are
possible, however, instability looks to be elevated. Temperatures
ahead of the cold front will be in the upper 70s and low 80s along
and north of I-64 and low-mid 80s south of I-64. There is still
quite a bit of guidance spread for high temperatures tomorrow. Have
gone on the slightly higher side of NBM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2024
Friday Night through Sunday Night...
Weakening upper level wave and surface frontal boundary will push
through the region Friday night and early Saturday morning. Not a
lot of moisture to work with here as model soundings show abundant
dry air in the low-levels. However, enough convergence along the
frontal boundary should result in at least isolated rain showers
pushing through the region. QPF amounts of a tenth of an inch or
less will be possible with this activity. After the front pushes
through, another surge of cooler/drier air will arrive for the
weekend. Lows Friday night will range from the upper 40s across
southern IN and northern KY with lower-mid 50s across southern KY.
A large dome of high pressure will then build into the region
Saturday afternoon and keep things dry through the remainder of this
period. Highs on Saturday will be in the 60-65 degree range across
southern IN and into parts of far northern KY. Across the remainder
of KY, highs will be in the 64-69 degree range, though a few spots
may hit 70 south of the Cumberland Parkway. Lows Saturday night
will drop into the mid-upper 30s, with the typical cool spots
dipping as far as the lower 30s. Mostly sunny skies are expected
on Sunday with highs in the 63-68 degree range. Lows Sunday night
will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s, though the typical colder
spots may drop into the low-mid 30s again.
Monday through Thursday...
Moving into next week, a large pattern change will develop with deep
western US troughing along with a strong ridge in the eastern US.
The Ohio Valley will get into a deep southwest flow during the
period with another strong warming trend in temperatures. By
Tuesday/Wednesday, we'll get into very breezy conditions across the
region as the pressure gradient tightens up. The core of the
strongest wind gusts will likely remain from west Texas northeast
into the western Great Lakes. Wind gusts Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons could get into the 25-35 mph range at times, with higher
wind gusts out over western KY. Those with outdoor Halloween decor
should keep an eye on wind forecasts and be prepared for windy
conditions. In addition, the expected gusty winds and the lack of
rain will result in elevated wildfire danger across the region and
additional burn bans will likely be required given the conditions.
Highs Monday will be in the low-mid 70s with overnight lows in the
low-mid 50s. Highs Tuesday should edge higher with readings in the
upper 70s to near 80. Highs Wednesday should push 80 in most
locations. Given the southwest wind flow, the models will likely
underdo temperature forecasts, so temp forecasts may require an
upward increase in subsequent forecasts.
By late in the period (Thursday), the upper level troughing over the
west will head eastward and push a frontal boundary toward our
region. This feature looks to be our next best chance for some much
needed rainfall. Highs Thursday will also be in the upper 70s to
near 80.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024
Ahead of an approaching cold front, conditions at area TAF
sites will remain VFR as winds continue to veer from the southeast
towards the southwest. As we near daybreak, a low level jet will
cause limited LLWS issues at HNB and SDF. Later this evening, as the
front works through, scattered showers will become more likely. Not
expecting significant impacts with any of this activity.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SRM
SHORT TERM...SRM
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...KDW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 2:22 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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