IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 7:14 PM EDT495
FXUS63 KIWX 212314
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
714 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm, dry, and breezy conditions for Tuesday afternoon will lead
to some risk with any fire ignition in dead brush and dry grass.
- Next chance of rain for Thursday night into Friday, but
rainfall amounts are not expected to be meaningful in terms
of ongoing drought conditions.
- Trend back to cooler temperatures for late Wednesday into
Thursday with another shot of cooler air expected for the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
Much above normal temperatures will continue into Tuesday, with
attention shifting to next frontal passage Wednesday, and then a
wavering frontal boundary into the first part of the weekend.
Old upper level low will continue to eject east-northeast out
of the lee of the Rockies tonight into Tuesday. This will
finally allow some southeast progression of stubborn southeast
CONUS anticyclone. Light gradient tonight and continued weak
warm advection and moderation of low level airmass should allow
for relatively mild conditions tonight. Dry airmass is still in
place, but current thinking is that light gradient and weak warm
advection should help keep mins above normal tonight from mid
40s to around 50.
Modest increase in low level flow expected for Tuesday given
the evolution of above features tonight. This increased
southerly flow will not be effective in any significant
moisture transport as upstream airmass is quite dry across Mid
MS Valley (0.35 PWATS at Nashville with the 12Z sounding this
morning). Some elevated fire weather danger is possible for
brush/grass fires given slightly stronger low level flow with
afternoon gusts to around 25 mph. A few items of lower
confidence regarding fire weather threat for Tuesday is timing
of increased mid/high clouds and also exact dew point trends.
Min RHs are not expected to fall as dramatically as this
afternoon, but Tuesday does feature a gustier wind element which
may play a role for lower end fire weather concern.
For late Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday night, have maintained a dry
forecast. The dampening upper level wave will not have much in the
way of moisture to work with but some isentropic ascent in wake of
this short wave Tuesday evening and some limited moisture return
could allow a few isolated showers across the southern Great Lakes.
However, this potential still appears too low for inclusion at this
time.
Wednesday should feature a mainly dry frontal passage as stronger
mid/upper forcing (increasingly weaker forcing) bypasses the area to
the north, with only weak moisture pooling along the cold front.
Some good post-frontal mixing should allow for wind gusts into the
20 to 25 mph range Wed afternoon, but these winds should quickly
subside Wed evening.
Thursday should feature quiet weather with broad mid subsidence and
pocket of drier air across the southern Great Lakes. Conditions do
not look quite as cool as previous indications, with trend to less
amplitude and more tempered frontal push with Wednesday's short
wave. Highs should range from mid 60s SW to upper 50s NE.
For Thursday night into early Friday, have continued trend from
previous forecast for increasing rain chances. A highly
progressive low amplitude eastern Pacific wave should induce at
least brief period of respectable low level moisture transport
into Mid/Upper MS Valley. With fairly steep mid level lapse
rates/isentropic upglide, a few thunderstorms are also possible.
Progressive nature of forcing mechanisms should limit basin
average rainfall amounts with little to no impact to current
drought conditions. The weekend should feature a reinforcing
weak push of cool air, but any cold air intrusion should be
short-lived with moderation in temps expected early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 709 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
VFR conditions expected through this TAF period. However, there
is a weak disturbance that will move into the area from the
west on Tuesday and the main impact will be an increase in wind
speeds. After 15z Tuesday, southerly winds will increase to 10
to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts possible through the remainder
of the period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Marsili
AVIATION...Andersen
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 7:14 PM EDT---------------
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