JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 1:30 AM EDT302
FXUS63 KJKL 240530
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
130 AM EDT Thu Oct 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A dry cold front will pass through this evening. This will bring
a cooler airmass into the region, with more seasonably normal
temperatures on tap for Thursday.
- Dry weather looks to hold on through the day Friday.
- A passing cold front will bring a chance of light rain showers
to the area Friday night, with temperatures dropping to near or
slightly below normal for the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 801 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2024
Updated the short term forecast to lower dewpoints and RH values,
especially for Thursday afternoon, as some CAMS are starting to
pick up on drier air residing across the forecast area,
particularly in the southwest, during this time.
Also updated Sky grids to account for some high-resolution models
depicting low stratus advecting into the area from the northeast
toward dawn, then lingering over mainly southern and eastern parts
of the forecast area before burning off between late morning and
mid-afternoon. This is low confidence but bears watching as this
tends to happen from time to time, and models struggle with this
given the thinness and low heights of the cloud layer.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 404 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2024
Another rather benign short term. A cold front is actually expected
to move through this evening, however all the moisture associated
with the system will remain contained well to our north, and it will
be a dry progression through the CWA. Satellite is showing some
clouds moving towards the state along this frontal boundary.
However, models show these clouds dissipating as they near eastern
Kentucky, especially as we move into the cooler evening hours.
Otherwise this front shouldn't really cause too many impacts. The
most noticeable thing is that it will change the wind direction to a
more northerly flow, which will usher in a cooler airmass into the
region. A large area of high pressure will be moving in from the
northwest as well behind the front, eventually turning winds
northeast during the day tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will only top out
in the 60s for most locations, quite a bit cooler than today - which
was near record highs in Jackson. Overnight lows both nights will be
similar, with cold air advection tonight, and winds becoming more
southwesterly tomorrow night. Expect to see temps in the 30s and
lower 40s, with coldest temperatures in the deeper valleys. Did keep
in some fog mention both nights, but since the front is moving
through in the evening and first part of the overnight, didn't have
the fog really ramping up until the early morning hours as lighter
winds and subsidence started settling in.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2024
The latest model data suggests mainly high pressure in control of
regional and area weather in the extended. One ridge will be exiting
to our east to begin the period on Friday, with a cold front moving
in on its heels. This boundary will bring scattered rain shower to
our area Friday night into Saturday. The rain will exit to our east
by early Saturday afternoon, after the front has moved through.
After that, another large and well developed ridge of high pressure
will settle over the region, bringing dry and initially cooler
weather to eastern Kentucky. Saturday and Sunday look to have highs
only in the low to mid 60s for most locations. From Sunday onward,
we will likely see a nice warm up, as the new air mass modifies
beneath ample sunshine and an eventual return to southerly flow.
Highs through mid-week will max out in the 70s across the area, with
mid to upper 70s possible by Wednesday afternoon. The presence of
high pressure will provide favorable conditions for ridge valley
temperature splits each night after Friday. No weather hazards
expected in the extended portion of the forecast at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2024
VFR conditions are occurring across all TAF sites with this TAF
issuance. TAFs are expected to remain VFR through much of the TAF
period; however, as mentioned in the previous discussion, a couple
models continue to hint at the possibility of MVFR clouds moving
in but opted to go VFR as great model confidence is lacking but
this will continue to be monitored. All terminals are seeing light
and variable winds but KSYM is still experiencing gusty northerly
winds but that'll diminish over the next couple of hours.
Otherwise, prevailing light and variable winds and VFR conditions
are expected.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...VORST
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 1:30 AM EDT---------------
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