IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 12:23 PM EDT692
FXUS63 KIWX 211623
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1223 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and very dry conditions this afternoon and Tuesday
afternoon will lead to some risk with any fire ignition in
dead brush and dry grass.
- Little if any rainfall through this weekend will allow the
severe drought to continue to expand over much of the area.
- Overall temperatures will be much above normal for this time
of year in the 70s to near 80, although somewhat cooler
weather is ahead Thursday and Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
The expansive surface high pressure area had actually weakened since
Saturday night with the center pressure falling 6 mb to near 1030 mb
over the Appalachian Mountains. This system will remain southeast of
the forecast area and continue to provide spectacular diurnal
temperature ranges from very chilly morning lows when a shallow but
large radiation inversion mixes out to very warm afternoon
temperatures for this time of year potentially reaching 80 degrees.
Several observing sites met or exceeded diurnal ranges of 40F
Sunday and will likely be reflected in ranges today, although
some early morning lows may not be nearly as chilly as low level
winds may be strong enough to prevent deep radiation cooling.
Early morning lows near 40 or in the 40s to near 50 are expected
to rise to a degree or 2 either side of 79 with a super adiabatic
lapse rate aided by the ongoing drought conditions in combination
with low dew points and dry ground conditions. Plan to continue
the mention the risk of brush and field fires in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook product as afternoon relative humidities fall
near or below 25% today and near 30% Tuesday.
For Wednesday through Sunday, the best chance for rain is Thursday
night through Friday as an upper level impulse moves across the
forecast area. Any rainfall amounts are expected to be light
given limited moisture and saturation per GFS. The initial
upper level low that was over Arizona this weekend had lifted
northeast into Colorado. This system will open up and weaken as
it continues to the northeast. Rain is no longer expected over
the forecast area with this system. Otherwise, a high zonal
flow will set up over the weekend. BUFKIT soundings appear too
dry to support rain, even lake enhanced showers. After
collaboration, have lowered model blend rain chances. Total
rainfall amounts through Sunday should be less than a tenth of
an inch if any at all and will do little if anything to slow down
the expanding severe drought.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
A weak disturbance will begin to approach the area from the west
late Tuesday, with winds picking up somewhat ahead of it (10 to
15 kts). Outside of the winds, only some passing high clouds are
expected possibly as early as the 00Z-6Z Tue period, but more
likely closer to and after 12Z Tue.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Fisher
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 12:23 PM EDT---------------
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