JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 7:35 PM EDT291
FXUS63 KJKL 232335
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
735 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A dry cold front will pass through this evening. This will bring
a cooler airmass into the region, with more seasonably normal
temperatures on tap for Thursday.
- Dry weather looks to hold on through the day Friday.
- A passing cold front will bring a chance of light rain showers
to the area Friday night, with temperatures dropping to near or
slightly below normal for the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 404 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2024
Another rather benign short term. A cold front is actually expected
to move through this evening, however all the moisture associated
with the system will remain contained well to our north, and it will
be a dry progression through the CWA. Satellite is showing some
clouds moving towards the state along this frontal boundary.
However, models show these clouds dissipating as they near eastern
Kentucky, especially as we move into the cooler evening hours.
Otherwise this front shouldn't really cause too many impacts. The
most noticeable thing is that it will change the wind direction to a
more northerly flow, which will usher in a cooler airmass into the
region. A large area of high pressure will be moving in from the
northwest as well behind the front, eventually turning winds
northeast during the day tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will only top out
in the 60s for most locations, quite a bit cooler than today - which
was near record highs in Jackson. Overnight lows both nights will be
similar, with cold air advection tonight, and winds becoming more
southwesterly tomorrow night. Expect to see temps in the 30s and
lower 40s, with coldest temperatures in the deeper valleys. Did keep
in some fog mention both nights, but since the front is moving
through in the evening and first part of the overnight, didn't have
the fog really ramping up until the early morning hours as lighter
winds and subsidence started settling in.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2024
The latest model data suggests mainly high pressure in control of
regional and area weather in the extended. One ridge will be exiting
to our east to begin the period on Friday, with a cold front moving
in on its heels. This boundary will bring scattered rain shower to
our area Friday night into Saturday. The rain will exit to our east
by early Saturday afternoon, after the front has moved through.
After that, another large and well developed ridge of high pressure
will settle over the region, bringing dry and initially cooler
weather to eastern Kentucky. Saturday and Sunday look to have highs
only in the low to mid 60s for most locations. From Sunday onward,
we will likely see a nice warm up, as the new air mass modifies
beneath ample sunshine and an eventual return to southerly flow.
Highs through mid-week will max out in the 70s across the area, with
mid to upper 70s possible by Wednesday afternoon. The presence of
high pressure will provide favorable conditions for ridge valley
temperature splits each night after Friday. No weather hazards
expected in the extended portion of the forecast at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2024
Cold front is crossing the region currently with a few mid- and
high-level clouds mostly. Northwest winds generally less than 10
kts will become northerly while subsiding through the late evening
hours. Next concern will be the potential for IFR or low-MVFR
stratus to move into the region from the northeast toward 12z,
perhaps lingering toward KJKL and KSJS as late as ~18-20z before
burning off. This is low confidence with only one or two models
depicting this, so elected to exclude from the 00z TAF package;
however, this is something that has occurred somewhat frequently
behind cold frontal passages as weak northeasterly low-level flow
develops on the west side of the Appalachians. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through the TAF period, with clear or
mostly clear skies expected outside of the potential low stratus.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 7:35 PM EDT---------------
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