LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 8:30 PM EDT162
FXUS63 KLMK 240030
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
830 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Fluctuating daily highs for the next several days, with some days
in the 80s and other days in the 60s and 70s.
* A cold front Friday afternoon into Friday night will bring a
chance for isolated to scattered rain showers. Rain totals will
be less than 1/10" in most locations
* Seasonable temps and dry weather expected this weekend, with a
warm-up and windy conditions returning for the middle of next
week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024
Skies are mostly clear this evening. An early evening mid-level
cloud deck over southern IN and northern KY has dissipated quickly.
Drier mid-level air will continue to stream in on NW flow tonight.
NW sfc winds will briefly increase to 6-12 mph this evening due to a
slightly tighter sfc pressure gradient. Sfc high pressure centered
over IA and northern MO will build east across IL/IN overnight,
causing winds to veer northerly and then northeasterly early Thu
while weakening. Sfc temps this evening have dipped into the 60s in
most places. Expect temps to tumble through the 40s during the early
morning hours tomorrow, and the coolest spots will likely reach the
upper 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024
Afternoon satellite imagery reveals mostly sunny skies across the
region. Temperatures were in the mid-upper 70s across southern
Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky. Lower 80s were prevalent
across southern KY, south of the Cumberland Parkway. Surface
analysis reveals a dry cold front bisecting the region. The front
is just northwest of a line from KBWG to near KCVG. There isn't
much of a temperature or dewpoint difference on either side of the
front, but a marked wind shift line is evident in the data. For the
remainder of the afternoon, no significant weather is expected. The
cold front will continue to move southeast and some mid-high level
clouds over central IL and IN may skirt across southern IN and
northern KY this evening. After highs in the upper 70s to around
80, look for temperatures to fall into the mid-upper 60s by mid-
evening.
For tonight, some mid-high level clouds may affect southern IN and
northern KY for a time. However, high pressure will quickly build
into the region allowing skies to clear and winds will shift from
the northwest to the northeast by morning. Overnight lows will
range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s across southern IN and
much of Kentucky. The exception will be mainly south of the
Cumberland Parkway where temps may only cool into the mid 40s.
For Thursday, high pressure will move through the region providing
the area with mostly sunny skies. However, temperatures will be
some 10-15 degrees cooler. High temps will range from the mid 60s
over southern IN and the Bluegrass region of central KY. Upper 60s
will be found south of the WK/BG Parkways with highs near 70 south
of the Cumberland Parkway.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024
At the beginning of the extended forecast period Thursday evening,
the synoptic-scale upper level pattern across North America will be
fairly zonal with low amplitude troughing ejecting from west to east
across the northern Plains and upper Midwest, with ridging both west
and east of this disturbance. Surface high pressure over the
Appalachians will not linger much into Friday as the overall pattern
stays progressive into the first half of the weekend. As a result,
the Ohio and Tennessee valleys will experience a quick warm-up on
Friday as return flow briefly sets up ahead of the approaching upper
perturbation and associated sfc cold front.
There should be a noticeable west-east and ridge-valley gradient in
temperatures Thursday night as valleys in east central KY decouple
and cool into the upper 30s to around 40. Meanwhile, areas farther
to the west which keep PBL mixing overnight should only fall into
the mid-to-upper 40s with a light SE wind. Highs on Friday will be
well above normal and some 10-15 degrees warmer than Thursday,
ranging from the upper 70s to the mid 80s across the FA.
Moisture associated with a cold front which will pass through the
region Friday afternoon into Friday night will be fairly limited,
with soundings showing quite a bit of dry air, even in the low
levels. Still, with convergence expected along the front, even
modest amounts of moisture should allow for isolated to scattered
showers Friday afternoon into Friday night, though total QPF should
remain less than 1/10" in most locations.
Behind the cold front, 1030+ mb sfc high pressure is expected to
work into the Ohio Valley for the weekend, with cold advection
dropping temperatures back to more seasonable levels. Dry weather is
also expected, with PWAT values also tumbling behind the front and
remaining low into early next week. All in all, the weekend looks
quite pleasant, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s/40s.
For early to mid next week, a return to warmer temperatures is
expected as upper ridging spreads across the central and eastern
CONUS and troughing digs along the west coast. At the surface, an
elongated front will stretch from the southern Rockies up into the
upper Midwest, with warm SW flow setting up across our region ahead
of this front. Next Tuesday into Wednesday looks particularly windy
(in addition to being warm). The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index is 0.6-
0.7 for winds next Tuesday, suggesting medium-high confidence in
unusually strong winds. Additionally, NBM 50th percentile maximum
wind gusts are around 40-45 mph across the area next Tuesday, though
this can sometimes skew too strong. At this time, any precipitation
with the aforementioned front looks like it should hold off until at
least next Wednesday/Thursday as the cold front moves closer to the
area.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 723 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024
VFR conditions likely. Thinning mid-level clouds over the Lower OH
Valley to begin this TAF period will clear quickly as the mid-level
trough shifts southeast of the area. NW winds of 7+ kts to
begin this TAF period will veer northerly overnight and weaken
as sfc high pressure slides east to Indiana. Expect a light NE
wind by daybreak Thu.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EBW
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...EBW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 8:30 PM EDT---------------
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