JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 10:46 AM EDT408
FXUS63 KJKL 231446
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1046 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather looks to hold through the remainder of the work
week.
- A warm bout will last one more day, with afternoon temperatures
running around 10 degrees above seasonable normal values of 65
to 70 degrees.
- A passing cold front will bring a chance of light rain showers
to the area Friday night, with temperatures dropping to near or
slightly below normal for the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1046 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2024
Overall grids are still in good shape. Only some minor updates to
make sure the near term grids were on track with the current
observations for temps, dew points, and winds. All updates have
been published and sent to NDFD/web. A new set of zones was also
sent out to remove any morning fog wording.
UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2024
No big changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of the
latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky. These minor adjustments
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2024
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure centered to the southeast of
Kentucky while a cold front is dropping into the western Ohio
Valley. This is a dry boundary and is mainly just pushing some mid
and high level clouds ahead of it east through central Kentucky -
entering the JKL CWA. Winds have been light enough and skies
clear enough to allow for another night of decent radiational
cooling along with the establishment of a rather large ridge to
valley temperature split. Currently, readings range from the upper
50s on the hilltops to the lower 40s in the deep sheltered spots.
So far there is just the hint of fog in the southeast river
valleys per satellite.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are now in
better agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict a sharp and fast moving 5h trough
crossing through the Ohio Valley and eastern Kentucky tonight with
brief height falls and a band of energy passing overhead. Heights
rise in this system's wake on Thursday with a small bubble ridge
moving into the area to end the period. Given the smaller spread
among the models this cycle have favored the NBM as the starting
point for the forecast grids with mainly targeted temperature
adjustments in the near term to account for the large terrain
difference and some to a lesser extent the first part of tonight.
Sensible weather features a continuation of the dry conditions
even as a distinct cold front passes through the area late today
and tonight. This will make for warm conditions today ahead of the
boundary and readings running about 10 degrees cooler and close to
normal on Thursday, in its wake. As it moves through, anticipate
a mostly well mixed boundary layer, tonight but still could see a
quick drop off of temperatures in the eastern valleys and some fog
developing near the rivers and lakes. Some high and mid level
clouds accompanying the front will also limit radiational cooling
through the night.
The changes to the NBM starting point mainly consisted of
adjusting the hourly T grids for more terrain distinction and a
faster valley drop off later this evening. As for PoPs: kept them
very low through the day and then allowed for up to a 10 percent
potential with the front passing tonight - generally in line with
the NBM.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 423 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2024
The forecast period begins with surface high pressure with upper-
level ridging building into the region. However, to the west, a
couple of upper-level features will bring a slight pattern change to
the forecast area. An upper-level jetstreak will track through
southern Canada with a developing surface low. Also, a break-off
shortwave trough will develop a surface low over the Central Plains.
The two surface lows will eject northeast and drag a surface cold
front toward the area by Friday night/Saturday morning. PoP chances
continue to range between 20-40% with the best forcing along and
north of the Mountain Parkway. As the front exits to the east early
Saturday afternoon, showers will dissipate from west to east.
High pressure will build back into the region from the northwest but
upper-level northwesterly flow will keep CAA overhead. This will
lower temperatures to slightly below average but relatively
seasonal. As high pressure remains overhead into next week, warming
temperatures are forecast. However, to the west, a longwave upper-
level trough will move onshore and bring another surface low toward
the area. Through early next week, the trough will cross over the
Rockies with surface low development taking place Monday night.
Through the day Tuesday, the low and surface cold front will track
toward the area but won't make it to the region before the forecast
period ends.
Overall, the period will be highlighted by a weak cold front passing
through the region. Temperatures will fluctuate quite a bit as the
area goes between high pressure and cold fronts. This weekend, post-
frontal, will bring a cool down with highs in the 50s and 60s with
overnight lows falling down into the 30s. As high pressure builds
back into the region for early next week, temperatures will climb
back to above average levels. Another cold front is expected to
approach the region for the end of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2024
A band of mid and high level clouds are moving through eastern
Kentucky early this morning well ahead of a dry frontal passage.
This has helped to limit the fog this morning and kept the TAF
sites VFR. These benign conditions will hold through the period.
An overall increasing trend in winds out of the southwest will
affect all terminals this morning peaking in the afternoon at
near 10 kts. The wind direction will shift increasingly westerly
as the fast moving, dry, cold front crosses the area late this
afternoon and into the evening before the winds diminish to light
and variable later tonight.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 10:46 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
