JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 1:55 AM EDT087
FXUS63 KJKL 230555 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
155 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather looks to hold through the remainder of the work
week.
- A warm bout will last through Wednesday, with afternoon
temperatures running around 10 degrees above seasonable normal
values of 65 to 70 degrees.
- A passing cold front will bring a chance of light rain showers
to the area Friday night, with temperatures dropping to near or
slightly below normal for the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 130 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2024
No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 717 PM EDT TUE OCT 22 2024
Added a modest amount of cloud cover to the current grids and the
next hour or two given passing high transitory clouds. Also
updated the hourly temperatures given some valley locations have
already cooled off substantially given ideal radiational cooling
conditions presently.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 327 PM EDT TUE OCT 22 2024
Benign weather will continue throughout the short-term despite
multiple upper level and surface disturbances.
A weakening upper level low will move through the Ohio Valley by
this evening and overnight, exiting and continuing to weaken by
Wednesday morning. Upper level troughing will remain in place
through the rest of the short-term portion of the forecast, with
lowering heights and another shortwave developing across the region
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
At the surface, high pressure will remain in control across the
eastern portion of the Commonwealth into the first part of
Wednesday, keeping conditions calm despite the passing shortwave. In
fact, the only impacts from this passing wave will be a few high
clouds, and perhaps some wind shear that could affect aviation for a
couple hours in the northern portion of the CWA in the early morning
hours Wednesday. This area of high pressure will eventually shift
east of the state during the day Wednesday as the next developing
shortwave moves into the region. This next wave will also result in
a surface low pressure system in eastern Canada, along with a cold
front that will stretch down into Kentucky. However, all models show
any moisture associated with this system contained well north of the
state. By 0Z Thursday, the front will have moved through eastern KY,
giving way to northerly winds, and another large area of surface
high pressure which will settle across the state throughout the
overnight.
This cold front will bring a cooler airmass into the region. While
lows tonight will range from the mid 40s to the low 50s, post
frontal temperatures on Wednesday night will generally be in the
upper 30s and low 40s, around 10 degrees cooler. Meanwhile,
southwest flow heading into the day Wednesday will warm temperatures
back in the upper 70s, much like today. Post frontal high
temperatures on Thursday - as we transition into the extended period
- should remain in the 60 degree range.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT TUE OCT 22 2024
The models were all in agreement that the extended period of the
forecast will feature mainly quiet weather, as high pressure will be
the main weather maker for eastern Kentucky. The first ridge will be
pulling out of the area early Friday afternoon, as a fast moving
cold front approaches from the west. This front is expected to move
through the region Friday night into Saturday, and will be
accompanied by isolated to scattered rain showers in the low
moisture environment. The last few showers should be ending by early
Saturday afternoon, as the front exits to the east. After that,
another well developed ridge will overspread the region from the
west, and will remain in place through the end of the forecast
period. The ridges will provide conditions that will favor nightly
ridge valley temperature splits. Temperatures will max out in the
upper 70s on Friday, after a period of light west to southwesterly
flow brings warmer air into the area. After the front has gone on
Saturday, we will likely see several days in a row with slightly
above normal highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. There will also
be a couple of cooler days with below normal daytime highs on
Thursday and Sunday, as the incoming ridges fully settle over the
region, along with their accompanying cooler air. No weather hazards
expected in the forecast at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2024
After a night of mostly clear skies increasing mid and high level
clouds are expected to pass through during the daytime hours
ahead and with of a dry frontal passage toward the end of the day.
However, outside of some valley fog in the river valleys away
from TAF sites, VFR conditions will hold through the period.
South to southwest winds will gradually increase through the rest
of the night over far northern and western parts of eastern
Kentucky, especially just off the surface above the shallow
nighttime inversion when a brief period of LLWS will be possible
at KSYM between 10 and 12Z. An overall increasing trend in winds
out of the southwest will affect all terminals after dawn and
before 18Z. The wind direction will shift increasingly westerly as
the fast moving, dry, cold front crosses the area late in the
period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 1:55 AM EDT---------------
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