LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 16, 11:33 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...377
FXUS64 KLIX 170433
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1133 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024
Fire weather forecast (FWFLIX) will be updated after the top of
the hour for the expiration of the Red Flag Warning. It should be
noted that extremely dry conditions will continue the next couple
days with minimum afternoon RH values falling below 30 percent
from the Interstate 10 corridor northward. However, wind speeds
won't be sufficient to justify Red Flag Warnings.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024
Strong negative vorticity advection associated with a deep layer
ridge axis building in from the northwest will result in clear
skies and low humidity through the entire forecast period.
Additionally, cold air will also continue to feed into the region
on the back of a northerly flow regime. This pool of colder air
will keep temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below average tomorrow
with highs near 70. By Friday, the heart of the 925mb cold pool
will start to shift to the east, and this will allow for some
moderation of the temperatures. However, readings are still
expected to be about 5 degrees below average. The clear skies and
dry air will also support a fairly large diurnal range with lows
falling into the low to mid 40s tonight and tomorrow night
generally along and north of the I-10/12 corridor and the low to
mid 50s south of this corridor. As the cold pool shifts to the
east Friday night, lows will be about 5 degrees warmer on average
from the previous two nights. Overall, there is very little spread
in the forecast temperature guidance, and the forecast mirrors the
NBM deterministic output. Winds will also decrease tomorrow and
Friday as the high pressure builds more over the region, and this
will allow the Red Flag Warning to expire this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024
Little change in the ongoing pattern is expected this weekend into
the first half of next week. A deep layer ridge will continue to
dominate the Gulf South, and this will keep skies clear, humidity
low, and any rain chances at zero percent. Temperatures will
continue to moderate over the weekend as the wind field turns more
easterly. Highs will warm back into the upper 70s on Saturday and
further climb into the lower 80s from Sunday through Tuesday.
Temperatures will continue to cool around 25 degrees on average
each night due to the low humidity and clear skies in place. This
will result in lows trending warmer through the period from the
low 50s and 60s Sunday morning into the upper 50s and 60s by
Tuesday morning. Once again, model spread in this time period is
low and confidence is high in the forecast. Given this, have opted
to use NBM deterministic values for the forecast temperatures in
the extended period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024
VFR conditions through the forecast period. With precipitable
water values near the climatological minima for mid-October until
Friday morning, clouds are going to have a hard time developing.
Only real issue at all is the gusty winds at KNEW and KMSY, where
gusts in excess of 25 knots are possible for the next 3-6 hours.
Even there, sustained winds should drop below 15 knots prior to
15z Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024
Fairly rough conditions will persist across the coastal waters
through the weekend as a tight pressure gradient between a high
pressure system to the north and a broad area of low pressure in
the southern Gulf and western Caribbean remains in place.
Northeast and east winds of 15 to 25 knots is forecast for the
waters over this period, and expect to see an extension or
reissuance of the small craft advisories in place for the open
Gulf waters. Seas will range from 4 to 10 feet over the period due
to a combination of wind waves and swell.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 41 70 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 45 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 43 71 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 56 70 57 74 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 47 70 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 42 71 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...PG
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 16, 11:33 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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