LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 9:46 PM EDT455
FXUS63 KLMK 230146
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
946 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry cold front moves in tomorrow. Still expecting well above
normal temperatures with a few wind gusts of 20 mph
* Fluctuating daily highs for the next several days, with some
days in the 80s and other days in the 60s and 70s. Friday's
high temperatures could be near record warmth.
* Secondary cold front on Friday may bring a chance of rain showers
to the region Friday night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
Current infrared satellite shows mostly clear skies with a few mid-
level clouds forming along the edge of a strengthening low-level
jet. Although dry air will inhibit any precipitation chances, cloud
cover will likely increase overnight in response the passing jet
dynamics. Clouds and southerly winds will account for above-normal
lows at sunrise. Rest of the forecast is on track with small
adjustments to account for current trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
This afternoon, a shortwave trough is lifting through the Midwest
causing a broken line of thunderstorms over central Illinois. These
storms are moving towards north central Indiana in the coming hours,
however central Kentucky and southern Indiana are not expected to
have any kind of precipitation due to the dry air mass. Temperatures
are expected to remain in the high 70s with urban areas reaching the
low 80s. Southwest winds are relatively light, however some KY
Mesonet stations have reported isolated gusts around 20 mph.
Tonight, it will remain dry with a few low level clouds moving in
from the west. Temperatures will drop to the 50s overnight, which is
at least 10 degrees above average for the season. These temperatures
are also higher than NBM due to the presence of clouds and warm air
advection thanks to southwest winds. A cold front will approach from
the Midwest while surface high pressure stays to the east of our
area in the Appalachians, causing tighter pressure gradient across
the Commonwealth.
Tomorrow, the cold front will start moving through Southern Indiana
by mid morning. Even though this front will be associated with
increased cloud coverage, dry air mass and low level stability will
maintain quiet weather conditions. Before frontal passage, winds
will be southwesterly, but will eventually veer northwest behind the
frontal boundary with persistent wind gusts of 20-25 mph.
Temperatures will continue to rise, reaching widespread low 80s as
the warm sector moves through the forecast area and the cooler
temperatures will not arrive until after sunset.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
===== Wednesday Night - Thursday Night =====
Upper shortwave trough axis will be passing over the Ohio Valley by
Wednesday night, with the associated cold front already through our
local forecast area. CAA and NW flow in the wake of the front will
help usher in cooler air again overnight and into Thursday. Thursday
morning low temps are forecast to drop into the upper 30s and low
40s. Dry weather will remain for this time frame as the front will
be moisture-starved.
High pressure will quickly filter into the area behind the front,
which will turn our sfc winds to be a NE component on Thursday. That
wind direction will keep us within a CAA pattern, so temperatures
will remain closer to climate normals and in the upper 60s for most.
High pressure and brief upper ridging will result in sunny skycover
as well.
By Thursday night, another shortwave trough will track across the
Midwest, pushing the sfc high to the east. Our winds will begin to
veer around to a southerly flow, resulting in a range in temps for
the overnight from west to east. We could end up seeing lower 40s
east of I-65, and upper 40s to the west. Dry weather remains for us,
but could begin to see a low chance PoP to our west.
===== Friday - Weekend =====
Sfc high will be to the east on Friday, so much better return flow
and tightening sfc pressure gradient ahead of the approaching front
will result in enhancing our sfc winds and WAA regime. SW sfc winds
could be breezy at times, with the 100-member LREF showing an 80%
probability of wind gusts greater than 20 mph. This WAA pattern will
help sfc temps to warm into the upper 70s and low 80s. Record high
temps for October 25 will be something to watch for, with forecast
highs possibly coming close to those records. Best chance of at
least tying a daily high record will be at Louisville (84F, 1902).
We'll finally have some rain chances for Friday ahead of a cold
front, but chances will remain below 20%. The primary shortwave and
upper level speed max will remain well north of us, with better
moisture remaining across the Great Lakes too. We'll have better
moisture available compared to the earlier cold front, but certainly
not looking at any widespread precip.
The front is expected to pass through the region sometime Saturday
morning, ushering in drier and cooler air again in the wake. Sharp
wind shift from a SW flow to NW will result in CAA regime, with
temperatures during the daylight hours expected to remain in the
upper 60s and lower 70s. Once again, another sfc high will follow,
though this time, should be centered over the Great Lakes. Still
will have dry wx again, with NE winds for Sunday keeping temps in
the 60s.
===== Early Next Week =====
Dry weather continues into early next week as the sfc high slides to
the east. Temperature could return to the 70s again for Monday and
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 726 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
Impacts/Confidence:
- Medium to high confidence in non-convective LLWS at HNB and SDF
tonight.
Discussion...VFR conditions will continue through this TAF period
ahead of dry frontal passage. After a few isolated gusts this
afternoon, winds have started to slow down and turn more to the
south. For tonight, the tail end of an strengthening low-level jet
will move across southern Indiana promoting enhanced winds in the
925-850 mb layer. There is enough confidence to mention non-
convective LLWS at HNB and SDF for a few hours before sunrise with
low confidence for BWG and LEX. On Thursday, winds will shift from
the south to the northwest behind a dry cold front with more
persistent gusts of 15 to possibly 20 knots.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMR/ALL
SHORT TERM...ALL
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...ALL
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 9:46 PM EDT---------------
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