JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 4:12 PM EDT676
FXUS63 KJKL 212012
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
412 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather is expected to hold through the remainder of the work
week.
- A warming trend will last through Wednesday with afternoon
temperatures running around 10 degrees above seasonable normal
values of 65 to 70 degrees.
- A passing cold front will bring a chance of light rain showers
to the area Friday night, with temperatures dropping to near or
slightly below normal for the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 405 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2024
Visible satellite imagery shows clear skies over eastern Kentucky
this afternoon. Temperatures are delightfully mild at 20z,
ranging from 71 over the northern foothills to 79 in the upper
Cumberland River Valley at the Harlan Airport. The higher
elevation points such as Flatwoods and the Big Black Mountain
summit are in the upper 60s. Dew points are comfortably low,
ranging from the mid 30s to the mid 40s. The surface weather
analysis shows an ~1028 mb high pressure centered over
northeastern Kentucky. Aloft, 500H ridging extends from the
Central Gulf Coast northward to the western Great Lakes. Further
upstream, a positively-titled trough extends from Nunavut
southwestward across Vancouver Island and off into the North Pacific.
Between the ridging and approaching trough, a filling closed low
is tracking northeast from Colorado to over the Central Plains.
The closed 500H low opens into a shortwave and is absorbed by the
upstream Canadian trough as the trough's axis negatively pivots
to north-south down into the mid-Mississippi Valley during the
next 24 to 36 hours. At the surface, high pressure will weaken and
slowly retreat to over the Southeast US, while the approaching
upper level trough propels a cold front into the Ohio Valley just
beyond the end of the forecast period.
After a very mild afternoon with highs ranging in the 70s for most
location, fair skies will permit another sharp-ridge valley
temperature split to redevelop tonight with lows ranging from the
mid 30s in the coolest hollows to near 50 over the warmest
thermal belt ridgetops. Fog is likely again tonight in the river
valleys and near bodies of water and could become locally dense.
After the fog burns Tuesday morning, mostly sunny skies and very
mild temperatures follow for Tuesday afternoon with highs between
75 and 80, or about 10 degrees above normal for this time of
year. As the pressure gradient begins to increase ahead of the
approaching cold front, expect at least some mixing to occur
Tuesday night near and west of the Escarpment and on the
ridgetops. This should help keep minimum temperatures in the upper
40s to mid 50s in these areas. Forecast lows for the deeper
eastern valleys are mainly in the mid 40s. However, a few of the
most sheltered, chilly hollows could still dip closer to 40.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2024
A progressive long wave pattern will be in place through the
weekend, with some amplification noted towards the end of the
period. A short wave trough and associated surface cold front
will traverse the Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday. Model
guidance continues to advertise this as a change in air mass
only, given the limited boundary layer moisture. Cooler and drier
air will filter into the region Thursday/Thursday night, with
temperatures returning to near normal for this time of year.
Another short wave trough and reflective surface cold front will
then move through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys Friday night
into Saturday. There is a better chance of at least light rain
showers occurring with this front, with model probabilities
generally trending a bit higher over the past few days, now in the
20-40% chance range. There is model disagreement regarding how
cold the inbound air mass will be following this boundary for the
rest of the weekend. The ECMWF has been the colder guidance, but
has not shown the best continuity over the past several days. The
GFS remains warmer, while showing a bit more consistency in recent
runs. As such, will generally stay just a bit on the warmer side
of the blended guidance. After one more day of around 10 degree
above normal daytime highs on Friday, maxes will retreat back
into mainly the low to mid 60s Saturday and Sunday. Lows will
average in the 30s and 40s. By Monday, deeper troughing will be
taking shape out West, with return flow allowing for warm air
advection across eastern Kentucky to begin next week. Temperatures
will top out in the upper 60s to around 70, with overnight lows
likely showing greater ridge/valley temperature variability by
that time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2024
Clear skies and VFR conditions with light, variable winds will
prevail through much of the forecast period at the TAF sites. Fog,
locally IFR or worse, is forecast to form again tonight in the
river valleys and near lakes but is not expected to impact the TAF
sites.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 4:12 PM EDT---------------
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