CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 1:36 AM EDT468
FXUS61 KCLE 220536
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
136 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure today will exit off the coast on Tuesday. A cold
front moves through on Wednesday with high pressure building
back in on Thursday. Another cold front is expected on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Temperatures will drop quickly this evening with clear skies and
a dry airmass. Many inland locations will see temperatures dip
into the 40s by morning.
Previous discussion...High pressure centered over the southern
Appalachians shifts eastward to the mid-Atlantic coast tonight
and tomorrow. This will result in sunny/clear skies and very
warm temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in
the upper 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Despite a decently potent upper-level trough moving across the
Great Lakes region Wednesday and Wednesday night, moisture
content will be disconnected from the region, primarily located
to the north. Only isolated to scattered rain showers will be
possible downwind of Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania Wednesday afternoon/night. Temperatures will be
warm on Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 70s before the
cold front crosses and high pressure quickly builds in Wednesday
night through Thursday night. A colder airmass will accompany
this high pressure with slightly below normal temperatures
expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A modest upper-level trough moves across the area on
Friday/Saturday, this time with a better moisture connection,
with PoPs in the 50-60% range Friday afternoon into Friday
night. Isolated to scattered lake effect rain showers will be
possible downwind of Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania with a fairly cold airmass overhead. Temperatures
will briefly be warm on Friday before a fairly cold airmass
builds in for the rest of the weekend. Temperatures look to
rebound early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR. SCT cirrus moving in with an upper level trough moving in
from the west. A cold front also closely trails that system.
Southwest winds on the increase. Right now, only have FDY with
gusts 15-20kts during the afternoon today. Warm air advection
aloft with flows off the surface increasing signals the need for
LLWS at TOL/FDY at the end of the TAF window after 04Z
Wednesday.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered rain showers Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night in Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania and again with areawide scattered rain showers on
Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Modest southwest winds continue tonight and tomorrow before
strengthening to around 20 knots on Wednesday ahead of a cold
front. Winds become northwest following the frontal passage
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, with 3-5ft waves
likely east of The Islands, necessitating the eventual need for
a small craft advisory. High pressure builds in on Thursday with
another cold front on Friday, with northwest winds likely
bringing small craft conditions over the weekend.
&&
.CLIMATE...
We are forecast to be within a few degrees of record high temperatures
on Tuesday, October 22nd. Here are the record high temperatures at area
climate sites:
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
10-22 83(1920) 79(2020) 81(1947) 80(1920) 80(1979) 84(1979)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...KEC/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...26
MARINE...Saunders
CLIMATE...
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 1:36 AM EDT---------------
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