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699 FXUS64 KLIX 161939AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA239 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024Strong negative vorticity advection associated with a deep layerridge axis building in from the northwest will result in clearskies and low humidity through the entire forecast period.Additionally, cold air will also continue to feed into the regionon the back of a northerly flow regime. This pool of colder airwill keep temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below average tomorrow with highs near 70. By Friday, the heart of the 925mb cold pool will start to shift to the east, and this will allow for some moderation of the temperatures. However, readings are still expected to be about 5 degrees below average. The clear skies and dry air will also support a fairly large diurnal range with lows falling into the low to mid 40s tonight and tomorrow night generally along and north of the I-10/12 corridor and the low to mid 50s south of this corridor. As the cold pool shifts to theeast Friday night, lows will be about 5 degrees warmer on averagefrom the previous two nights. Overall, there is very little spreadin the forecast temperature guidance, and the forecast mirrors theNBM deterministic output. Winds will also decrease tomorrow and Friday as the high pressure builds more over the region, and this will allow the Red Flag Warning to expire this evening. &&.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday night)Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024Little change in the ongoing pattern is expected this weekend intothe first half of next week. A deep layer ridge will continue todominate the Gulf South, and this will keep skies clear, humiditylow, and any rain chances at zero percent. Temperatures willcontinue to moderate over the weekend as the wind field turns moreeasterly. Highs will warm back into the upper 70s on Saturday andfurther climb into the lower 80s from Sunday through Tuesday.Temperatures will continue to cool around 25 degrees on averageeach night due to the low humidity and clear skies in place. Thiswill result in lows trending warmer through the period from thelow 50s and 60s Sunday morning into the upper 50s and 60s byTuesday morning. Once again, model spread in this time period islow and confidence is high in the forecast. Given this, have optedto use NBM deterministic values for the forecast temperatures inthe extended period. &&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024Gusty northeasterly winds at 15 to 25 knots will gradually weakenbelow 10 to 15 knots into the overnight hours and become more easterly by Thursday morning. No other impacts to note at any terminals, VFR through the cycle.&&.MARINE...Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024Fairly rough conditions will persist across the coastal watersthrough the weekend as a tight pressure gradient between a highpressure system to the north and a broad area of low pressure inthe southern Gulf and western Caribbean remains in place.Northeast and east winds of 15 to 25 knots is forecast for thewaters over this period, and expect to see an extension orreissuance of the small craft advisories in place for the openGulf waters. Seas will range from 4 to 10 feet over the period dueto a combination of wind waves and swell. &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 41 70 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 45 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 43 71 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 56 70 57 74 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 47 70 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 42 71 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.GM...Gale Warning until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.MS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 080>082.GM...Gale Warning until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.&&$$SHORT TERM...PGLONG TERM....PGAVIATION...TJSMARINE...PG
