BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 3:17 PM EDT963
FXUS61 KBOX 181917
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
317 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds and expands across the northeast, bringing
dry conditions and warmer temperatures this weekend through
much of next week. Temperatures will be well above normal. The
next chance for unsettled weather may arrive around next
Thursday as a cold front moves through, followed by cooler
conditions next Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
High pressure builds into the region from the west tonight
resulting in a slackening gradient and winds becoming light to
calm. With clear skies and a dry airmass, this sets the stage
for excellent radiational cooling conditions and a wide range of
temps. Another chilly night with lows ranging from the low-mid
30s with frost in the typical colder locations in the CT valley
and interior eastern MA to low-mid 40s for east coastal MA,
outer Cape/ACK and areas adjacent to Narragansett Bay as well
as central MA higher elevation locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday...
Anomalously strong mid level ridge builds over New Eng with strong
subsidence and full sunshine. 500 mb heights are maxed out relative
to climatology for this time of year. While temps will be several
degrees above normal, relative shallow mixing to around 925 mb will
limit how warm it gets. For example, if we were able to mix to 850
mb where temps are warming to near +12C highs would reach around 80.
However, with more shallow mixing 925 mb temps around 13C will
support highs upper 60s and low 70s, but cooler immediate south
coast and Cape/Islands as winds turn southerly.
Saturday night...
High pres remains in control with clear and calm conditions. Good
radiational cooling but expect milder temps given airmass moderation
and somewhat higher dewpoints. Lows will be in the 30s in the colder
locations and 40s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights:
* Gorgeous stretch of weather through at least mid next week with
above normal temperatures and no precipitation
* Cold frontal passage on Thursday may bring the only chance for
rain over the long term period
* Cool down towards seasonable temps for next weekend
Sunday through Wednesday
Hopefully you didn't pack away your shorts for the season because we
are looking a a beautiful, September like stretch of weather to
round out the weekend and carry through the middle of next work
week. Sprawling high pressure anchored over the eastern half of the
CONUS is accompanied by strong mid level ridging resulting in much
above normal temperatures and dry weather. Away from the coast,
widespread highs in the low 70s can be expected on Sunday, but
temperature have a high probability of climbing into the high 70s
on Monday as 925mb temperatures make a run at 17C. Westerly flow
will aid in downsloping on Monday, which may further aid daytime
heating, so it's not out of the question portions of SNE make a run
at 80F Monday afternoon. While ridge axis crests over the region on
Tuesday, 925mb temps cool slightly, dropping to between 13-16C
(coolest across eastern MA). Even with slightly cooler temps aloft,
developing southerly flow should support highs in the 70s through
Wednesday. While the mild weather is the main story, precipitation
chances look dismal through Wednesday.
Thursday into next Weekend...
A cold front on Thursday looks to bring the only chance for
precipitation over the long term period, though total QPF potential
does not look promising, with 50th percentile 24 QPF amounting to
perhaps a few hundredths of an inch in far northwestern MA by late
Thursday evening. Temperatures on Thursday will be highly dependent
on the timing of the front, so it's possible portions of eastern MA
and RI tack another day of 70F+ onto the warm spell before the front
moves through. Behind the front, much more seasonable temperatures
are expected through at least the first half of the weekend with
highs in the 50s and 60s.
Do want to note that beyond next weekend's cooldown, the global
guidance is hinting at more zonal flow/weak ridging to build over
much of the CONUS, which would result in above normal temperatures
perhaps carrying us all the way into early November! While a lot
could change over the next two weeks, the weather may cooperate
with hardy southern New Englanders participating in "no heat
October".
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update:
Through Tonight: High confidence.
VFR. Northerly winds around 5-10 kt for the interior, around
10-12 kt with occasional gusts near 20 kt for BOS and PVD, and
around 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt for the Cape and Islands. For
the overnight hours, winds will then become light NW/WNW for
most airports, but continue NE around 5-10 kt for the Cape and
Islands.
Saturday: High confidence overall, though moderate on wind
directions at BOS.
VFR. Winds become light and shift S to SW for most if not all
airports. Seabreeze at BOS could be possible around 18Z with the
calmer winds and clear skies, but confidence in timing still
remains moderate.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in wind directions Saturday.
VFR. N to NNE winds around 10-12 kt, with gusts ending around
22Z. Calm winds to around 5 kt for Saturday from the S, but SE
seabreezes could be possible around 18Z Sat.
KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Saturday night...
Gusty NE winds will diminish through the evening becoming light
overnight into Sat as high pres builds into the waters. Winds shift
to S-SW late Sat into Sat night. Rough seas will begin to subside
late tonight into Sat, dropping below 5 ft Sat night. SCA will
continue through Sat for the outer waters due to hazardous seas.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Sunday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions continue through the weekend, but lighter winds and
somewhat higher relative humidities will result in less favorable
conditions for elevated fire spread.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There was very little tidal departure during the afternoon high
tide and Boston tide peaked at 12.17 ft, a bit below the FS of
12.5 ft. The astronomical high tide Sat afternoon is the same as
today and with less wind and wave action do not expect any
surge. Thus, minimal issues expected with just a low risk for
very minor splashover along the most vulnerable shoreline roads.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ232>235-
237.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ250-
254>256.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/KS
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...Hrencecin/KS
MARINE...KJC/KS
FIRE WEATHER...KJC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 3:17 PM EDT----------------
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