PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 12:24 PM CDT754
FXUS63 KPAH 191724
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1224 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions and a warming trend can be expected through the
first half of next week. Daily highs in the 70s will peak
around 80 degrees by Tuesday and Wednesday.
- A cold front's passage will bring small chances of light
showers or sprinkles Wednesday night and a marked cool off for
the week's end...back in the 60s for highs to finish the work week,
with 70s returning for next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
In the near term, we may see some shallow/patchy ground fog this
morning, but it should burn off quickly after daybreak.
Otherwise, high pressure is our dominant synoptic feature over
the package, although we do have a mid week cold front that
enters the forecast picture.
The front is incoming by mid week. It approaches from the west
Monday night, but return flow is meager, so moisture is limited.
In addition, it's an H5 568DM Low in the Plains, but fills to
573DM by Tuesday evening as it crosses into the Mississippi
Valley, and then flattens out completely, effectively losing
its identity by Tuesday night/Wednesday. The surface reflected
front maintains its wind shift as it makes passage late Tuesday
night into Wednesday but little else. The NBM picks up on this
and has eliminated the slight chance pops it produced with its
approach in its previous run(s). The main sensible weather
influence will be a marked drop in temperatures behind fropa,
beginning Wednesday night and continuing thru the week's end. We
heat up to around 80F in the air mass in place prior to the
front's arrival, then we'll cool off with highs in the 60s to
finish out the work week. Some 70s return by the weekend. A
slight chance mention on the pop is maintained Wednesday night as
this air mass overtakes ours, but we can see in the moisture
starved environ, this may also end up being phased out, as the
deterministic modeling suggests. We'll see if the ensembles pick
up on it tmrw, before any action on our part to potentially
remove its mention.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
High pressure will remain in control through Sunday providing
clear skies, light winds, and mostly VFR conditions. The
exception is at CGI where areas of fog are possible Sunday
morning. Any fog should clear up shortly after sunrise.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...AD
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 12:24 PM CDT---------------
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