JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 4:25 AM EDT437
FXUS63 KJKL 200825
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
425 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy to areas of valley fog are expected early this morning
and again tonight, primarily along main stem rivers and larger
tributaries.
- A warming trend will carry through early mid-week, along with
dry weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 425 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2024
07Z sfc analysis shows high pressure holding over eastern Kentucky
again keeping the skies clear and winds light overnight. These
are excellent conditions for radiational cooling and have
resulted in a moderate to large ridge and valley temperature
difference through the night. Specifically, readings currently
vary from the lower 50s on the hills to the upper 30s in a few of
the deeper valleys. Meanwhile, dewpoints are running in the mid
30s to lower 40s, most places. This air mass is still not dry
enough to keep all the fog at bay with evidence of it seen in the
southeast river valleys via the latest satellite images.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue to be
in excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict ridging from the southwest at 5h
spreading over the lower Ohio Valley through Monday. The high
heights from the ridge's influence will mitigate any effect from
some energy at mid levels that drops south through eastern
Kentucky tonight. This occurs ahead of an approaching trough
moving out of the Central Plains toward the Ohio Valley late in
the period. The small model spread again supported using the NBM
solution as the starting point for the grids though with
some substantial adjustments for more terrain distinctions in
temperatures early this morning and again tonight.
Sensible weather features a persistent, dry and quiet forecast
through the start of the new work week with light winds and
mostly clear skies. This means a large diurnal curve for the JKL
CWA with highs reaching the low to mid 70s today and even warmer
on Monday. Again we can expect deeper mixing than modeled to
result in dry air filtering down to the sfc and making for lower
dewpoints than represented by the NBM today and again Monday
afternoon. At night, look for another round of excellent
radiational cooling conditions yielding more moderate to large
ridge and valley temperature splits into Monday morning. Valley
fog will again be pronounced late tonight into early Monday with
locally dense patches found near bodies of water. Again cannot
rule out some patchy frost in a few places both through dawn this
morning and late tonight.
The changes to the NBM starting point mainly consisted of adjusting
the hourly T grids for more terrain distinction and a faster
valley drop off after dark along with drier afternoon dewpoints
and humidities. As for PoPs: kept them about zero through Monday
- in line with the NBM and all guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 405 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2024
The period starts with surface high pressure over the area. This
surface high pressure will keep temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees
above normal. Also, at the start of the period, upper-level
troughing is forecast to exist over the Central Plains. This trough
is expected to lift into the Great Lakes by Tuesday night with a
surface cold front extending back to the west. Through the day
Wednesday, the front will track through the Commonwealth but
moisture will be lacking; therefore, the front is forecast to be a
dry front. High pressure will return Thursday but post-frontal CAA
will keep temperatures about 10 degrees colder than Wednesday which
will be near seasonal norms.
High pressure remains dominate over the area through the weekend
with temperatures warming back to above normal averages. However,
models have a shortwave trough developing over southern Canada and
ejecting into the Upper Great Lakes. As this surface feature ejects
into the Great Lakes, another cold front is forecast to track
through the Commonwealth bringing increased chances for showers for
the end of weekend into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2024
VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with light and
variable winds. Localized valley fog will be around early this
morning and may become dense for brief periods of time. This will
lead to localized VLIFR conditions however these low visibility
conditions are currently not expected to affect any TAF terminals.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 4:25 AM EDT---------------
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