IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 12:34 PM EDT362
FXUS63 KIND 201634
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1234 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather with warm daytime temperatures will continue through
Wednesday
- Small chances for rain on Wednesday night
- Thursday-Friday...transition to seasonably cool conditions, albeit
mainly dry
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 833 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
The ideal radiational cooling setup has left temperatures colder
than the models similarly to yesterday morning. Sheltered and rural
areas have dipped all the way into the middle 30s, while urban areas
have dipped into the lower 40s. Hi-Res soundings are continuing to
show an extremely dry column and coupled with the influence of a
surface high pressure ridge will result in sunny skies today with a
large recovery in temperatures on tap. Look for temperatures around
10 degrees above normal this afternoon with highs in the lower to
middle 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
Synopsis:
Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure
centered over KY. This strong, large high pressure system was in
control of the weather across the eastern half of the CONUS,
providing mostly clear skies. Tonight, the nearest clouds to Indiana
were found about 300-400 miles to the north over northern MI. Aloft,
ridging has moved off the east coast of the CONUS, as the main flow
aloft was zonal and across the northern United States. A cut-off low
was found over the American southwest, pushing some storms across
New Mexico. Winds across Central Indiana were light to calm and from
the southwest.
Today and tonight -
Continued quiet and pleasant fall weather is expected today and
tonight.
Models show the upper low across the southwest states will continue
to spin and allow for the development of a downstream upper ridge
over the plains states today. This new ridge aloft will protect
Central Indiana from any significant weather today, tonight and into
Monday. Models suggest subsidence within the flow aloft on the lee
side of the new ridge. This will help to strengthen the strong
surface high already in place over Indiana and the Ohio Valley.
Forecast soundings both today and tonight continue to show a dry
column with unreachable convective temperatures. Thus another sunny
day and clear night are expected.
The air mass across the area has shown signs of slow moderation,
with lower levels warming slightly than the previous day. Thus we
will looks for highs in the lower to middle 70s and lows tonight
mainly in the lower to middle 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
Monday -
More quiet and warm weather will be expected on Monday. Models
suggest the upper low will push northeast into the Plains as the
upper ridge axis remains over Indiana. Forecast soundings continue
to show a dry column, as surface high pressure remains over the Ohio
Valley and much of the east coast. This will lead to more of the
same ongoing weather, Sunny days and clear nights with temperatures
continuing to moderate, with slightly warmer highs as compared to
Sunday.
Tuesday and Wednesday -
Tuesday and Wednesday appear to be the start of days of transition.
Models suggest the upper low will reach Illinois on Tuesday as it
weakens into just a short wave embedded within the flow aloft. This
wave looks to pass across Indiana on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
However moisture still remains a problem. Forecast soundings fail to
show any saturation as the upper forcing passes. Gulf moisture
fails to arrives due to blocking high pressure over the deep south.
Thus confidence for any rain continues to fall and will continue the
ongoing dry forecast.
On Wednesday a secondary upper trough is expected to sag southward
from the Great Lakes. This feature will also be accompanied by a
surface cold front. Again, moisture remains in question. Forecast
soundings again fail to show saturation, but pwats have trended
toward near 0.90 inches. Given the slight increase in moisture along
with the ample dynamics, small chances for rain still seem
reasonable. Any rainfall amounts should be light and confidence
remains low.
Thursday through Saturday -
The strong cold cold front will have exited Central Indiana on
Thursday as much cooler, Canadian high pressure will settle across
the Ohio Valley. This high will bring more dry weather on Thursday
through Saturday as moves across the region. Regarding temperatures,
look for a warming trend through Saturday as the high passes to the
east and southerly flow returns at that time.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1234 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
Impacts:
- Very small chance for brief MVFR or worse conditions in shallow
fog, mainly at KBMG after 10z
Discussion:
Highly confident that the bone dry column, broad surface high
pressure ridge will lead to clear skies and calm to light SSW winds
through the TAF period. There is only a very small chance of very
brief and shallow fog at mainly KBMG overnight.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...MK
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 12:34 PM EDT---------------
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