PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 12:54 AM EDT804
FXUS61 KPBZ 200454 AAB
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1254 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through the
middle of the week. Rain chances return late Wednesday and
Thursday with a crossing cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and warm
- Cloud free skies
-------------------------------------------------------------------
No changes to the overnight period.
Today will be a repeat of Saturday with highs about the same or
perhaps a degree warmer. Conditions will remain very dry with
surface dewpoints in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather and a warming trend through the period
-------------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure will remain centered over the Ohio River Valley
region through the period, keeping the area dry and warm.
Rising 500mb heights and warmer 850mb temperatures should result
in highs in the mid 70s for much of the area Monday. A few
climate sites may be a few degrees shy of tying/breaking record
high temperatures on Tuesday if the environment exceeds the
guidance of the 95th percentile.
Overnight lows are expected to gradually warm each night, with
some river valley steam fog possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and warm most of Wednesday
- Rain chances return late Wednesday with a crossing cold front
- Cooler to end the week
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Model ensembles indicate a weakening trough will advance out of
the Plains region, crossing the Upper Ohio Valley region
Wednesday. This should result in some increase in cloud cover,
and a slight decrease in temperatures.
A stronger shortwave trough, and it's associated surface cold
front, are expected to cross the region Wednesday night, with
increasing shower chances. Limited moisture with the front could
be a limiting factor in the extent of shower coverage with
FROPA.
Shower chances should taper off Thursday as high pressure
begins to build across the region. Cold NW flow will result in
temperatures around 5 degrees below average Thursday. The
coldest air will shift east of the region Friday and Saturday,
as a couple of weak upper troughs cross the region. Mainly dry
weather is expected to continue, with surface high pressure
remaining in place.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR with light wind continues through the TAF period as high
pressure remains dominant. River valley fog could briefly impact
FKL and AGC near dawn, so opted to keep TEMPOs in those TAFs
for the 11Z to 13Z timeframe.
.Outlook...
High pressure should maintain VFR conditions and light winds
into early next week.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WM/Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan/22/McMullen
SHORT TERM...Hefferan/22
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Cermak/Rackley
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 12:54 AM EDT---------------
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