JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 1:22 PM EDT236
FXUS63 KJKL 191722
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
122 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog is expected early this morning and again tonight,
primarily in sheltered valley locations and along the river.
- A warming trend will carry through early next week, along with
dry weather.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 121 PM EDT SAT OCT 19 2024
Forecast is on track. No significant changes were made.
UPDATE Issued at 1014 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2024
Grids have been updated to reflect the latest observations and
the diurnal warming trend for the day.
UPDATE Issued at 720 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2024
No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2024
07Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over eastern Kentucky keeping
the skies clear and winds light to calm. These are excellent
conditions for radiational cooling and have resulted in a
moderate ridge to valley temperature difference through the night.
Specifically, readings currently vary from the lower 50s on the
hills to the mid and upper 30s in the deeper low spots. Meanwhile,
dewpoints are running in the mid to upper 30s most places. This
air mass is not dry enough to keep all the fog at bay with
tendrils of it evident along the southeast rivers in the latest
satellite images.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in
excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict Kentucky in the midst of solid ridging
at 5h through the Appalachians - peaking over the Mid Atlantic
States at the start with some weakening east through the weekend.
At the same time, the ridge to the southwest will become dominant
and build into the state through Sunday. This means mid level
heights slowly climbing through the period while any energy at
these layers will be weak and easing off to the east. The small
model spread warranted using the NBM solution as the starting
point for the grids in conjunction with adjustments for more
terrain distinctions in temperatures early this morning and
tonight.
Sensible weather features a dry and quiet forecast through the
weekend with light winds and mostly clear skies. This will mean a
large diurnal curve for most of the JKL CWA with highs reaching
the low to mid 70s today and Sunday. Expect deeper mixing than
modeled to result in dry air mixing down making for lower
dewpoints than represented by the NBM - a bit today but more so
for Sunday afternoon. At night, look for another bout of
excellent radiational cooling conditions and a moderate to large
ridge to valley temperature split. Valley fog will likely be a bit
more pronounced late tonight into early Sunday with locally dense
patches near bodies of water. Cannot rule out frost in places
both through dawn this morning and late tonight but have left that
out of the forecast on account of the growing season having ended
as of yesterday.
The changes to the NBM starting point mainly consisted of adjusting
the hourly T grids for more terrain distinction and a faster
valley drop off after dark tonight and drier afternoon humidities. As
for PoPs: kept them at zero through the weekend - in line with
the NBM and all guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 407 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2024
The extended portion of the forecast will dominated primarily by
high pressure two large, well developed ridges will be in place over
the eastern half of the CONUS through early Saturday morning. The
only exception to this will be Wednesday night, as a weak shortwave
trough moves quickly to the east through the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes regions. We may pick up a few rain showers as this system
moves through, but the rain should quickly come to an end by early
Thursday morning, after the trough exits to our east. After that,
another ridge of high pressure will settle over the region, bringing
dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky to finish out the week.
With the two ridges settling directly over the region, conditions
will be ideal for ridge valley temperature differences and late
night and early morning valley fog. Nightly lows will be warm enough
for nothing but fog to form across the area. Daytime highs will
start out quite warm, with daily maxes in the 70s on tap Monday
through Wednesday. After the trough moves through Wednesday night, a
much cooler yet dry air mass will filter into the region. This will
lead to much cooler highs in the 60s Friday and Saturday. Nightly
lows will fall into the 40s on the warmer nights, and into the upper
30s in valley on the cooler nights. Conditions look to be quite dry
on Monday, so afternoon dewpoint temperatures that day were lowered
several degrees below the NBM data to account for the incoming air
mass. The only hazard that might occur in the extended would locally
dense valley fog that may form Sunday night and Monday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SAT OCT 19 2024
VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with light and
variable winds. Localized valley fog will develop overnight and
may be dense for breif periods of time. This will lead to
localized VLIFR conditions however these low visibility conditions
are currently not expected to affect any TAF terminals.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GINNICK
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 1:22 PM EDT---------------
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