ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 9:27 PM EDT987
FXUS61 KILN 190127
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
927 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
As surface high pressure moves slowly east, a ridge will be left
over the CWA in its wake. Above the surface, the high pressure
center will remain entrenched over the region, even as the upper
high gets knocked down in favor of a more zonal flow at this
level. Upper level heights will support a continued warming of
the air in the Ohio Valley through mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
The center of the 500H ridge is located over northwestern PA/
northeastern OH at the start of the period with the surface high
nearly in the same location. Consequentially, the ILN CWA is
under an area of nearly stagnant conditions. With PWATs 1.5 to 2
sigmas below normal, not much moisture is present for any
widespread fog formation, despite the calm conditions. However,
did go ahead and add river valley fog to the grids, as areas
with an abundant moisture source will likely see some visibility
drops tonight.
In addition, it appears that radiational cooling effects are in
full swing post sunset and temperatures have fallen rapidly.
Have tweaked temperature grids accordingly and overnight lows
should fall to the upper 30s for most areas.
Previous discussion--> Clear skies and light winds will permit
another strong radiational cooling night. With temperatures
during the day rising into the upper 60s, nighttime lows are
expected to be about 5 degrees warmer than this morning, maybe
as much as 8 degrees over west central Ohio. The difference in
daytime high and nighttime low temperatures do not support frost
formation tonight. Lows will fall to within a degree or two of
40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Another day of sunny skies will permit continued warming over
the region, with highs rising to around 70 degrees. Overnight
lows will be only slightly warmer than tonight, generally in the
lower 40s with yet another clear sky forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Warm and dry conditions will start out the long term with high
temperatures in the 70s and lows in the 40s Sunday and Monday.
A weak system moves through bringing a slight chance of showers
on Tuesday, however continued warm conditions with highs in the
70s is expected.
A stronger, quick moving system will move through Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Models have been consistent in
showing this system, although details still need to be resolved
with specific timing. As it moves through winds will pick up and
become gusty around 30 mph and there will be a line of showers
and then potentially some residual scattered shower activity.
Temperatures will drop quickly and therefore after a high in the
70s on Wednesday, low temperatures by Thursday morning will
have dropped into the upper 30s to lower 40s. There will still
be some CAA on Thursday and therefore temperatures will be
cooler in the 50s in many locations. In addition there will be
CAA cu on Thursday.
The cold air will be short lived as WAA quickly returns and
temperatures start to rebound. Dry conditions will be in place
at the end of the long term.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions in store for the period with the exception of
some overnight river valley fog at KLUK. Used persistence
forecasting to try to time out VSBY drops at this site. Fog
should lift shortly after sunrise.
Otherwise, high pressure remains in control and winds will be
calm to very light and variable through the remainder of the TAF
period.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...CA/Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CA
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 9:27 PM EDT---------------
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