PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 1:13 PM CDT481
FXUS63 KPAH 181813
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
113 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions and a warming trend can be expected today
through early next week, with above normal temperatures
Saturday through Wednesday.
- There are small chances of light showers or sprinkles Tuesday
morning and again Wednesday night, but chances are trending
lower.
- Temperatures will drop back to more seasonable readings
Thursday behind a cold front.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024
Temperatures are running 1 to 5 degrees warmer than last night.
The best potential for at least some patchy frost continues to
be across our eastern third of counties and will continue the
ongoing frost advisory through 8am CDT/9am EDT this morning.
High pressure will remain centered northeast, then east of our
region today through Monday. Our region will remain dry through
the period, and with very limited moisture, we will see very
little in the way of clouds. With a southerly component to our
light winds and abundant sunshine, we will see a warming trend
along with slowly increasing dew points. High temperatures
Saturday will already be a couple of degrees above normal, with
well above normal readings early next week. Overnight lows will
be slower to recover due to clear skies and calm winds each
night, combined with dew points still in the lower to middle
40s. Lows will still be below normal through Sunday night, with
near normal readings Monday night.
Models show an upper level trof moving through our region Tuesday
into Tuesday night, followed by a cold front Wednesday.
Any QPF with these features have been trending lower over the last
few runs due to a lack of any real moisture return across our
region. The NBM is still producing 15% PoPs in the I-64 corridor of
southern Illinois Tuesday morning with the upper trof, and
15-20% PoPs in mainly southern Illinois and southeast Missouri
Wednesday night behind the front. Overall, it looks like we
would see sprinkles at best, but we will leave these low
chances in for now.
After highs around 8 degrees above normal Wednesday, temperatures
behind the front will cool back down to near seasonable values in
the upper 60s to lower 70s for Thursday with lots of sunshine.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024
VFR conditions are forecast for the day under clear skies and
light to moderate east to southeast winds.
Some ground fog will again be possible near rivers and area
lakes overnight.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...JGG
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 1:13 PM CDT---------------
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