ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 2:55 PM EDT018
FXUS61 KILN 181855
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
255 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
As surface high pressure moves slowly east, a ridge will be left
over the CWA in its wake. Above the surface, the high pressure
center will remain entrenched over the region, even as the upper
high gets knocked down in favor of a more zonal flow at this
level. Upper level heights will support a continued warming of
the air in the Ohio Valley through mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Clear skies and light winds will permit another strong
radiational cooling night. With temperatures during the day
rising into the upper 60s, nighttime lows are expected to be
about 5 degrees warmer than this morning, maybe as much as 8
degrees over west central Ohio. The difference in daytime high
and nighttime low temperatures do not support frost formation
tonight. Lows will fall to within a degree or two of 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Another day of sunny skies will permit continued warming over
the region, with highs rising to around 70 degrees. Overnight
lows will be only slightly warmer than tonight, generally in the
lower 40s with yet another clear sky forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Warm and dry conditions will start out the long term with high
temperatures in the 70s and lows in the 40s Sunday and Monday.
A weak system moves through bringing a slight chance of showers
on Tuesday, however continued warm conditions with highs in the
70s is expected.
A stronger, quick moving system will move through Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Models have been consistent in
showing this system, although details still need to be resolved
with specific timing. As it moves through winds will pick up and
become gusty around 30 mph and there will be a line of showers
and then potentially some residual scattered shower activity.
Temperatures will drop quickly and therefore after a high in the
70s on Wednesday, low temperatures by Thursday morning will
have dropped into the upper 30s to lower 40s. There will still
be some CAA on Thursday and therefore temperatures will be
cooler in the 50s in many locations. In addition there will be
CAA cu on Thursday.
The cold air will be short lived as WAA quickly returns and
temperatures start to rebound. Dry conditions will be in place
at the end of the long term.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunny/clear skies will prevail for another day with VFR
conditions. Only exception here is at KLUK where river valley
fog will likely drop vsbys to LIFR between 08Z and 12Z. Vsbys
will fall down and rise up quickly before and after these times.
As high pressure remains in control of weather in the region,
light and variable to calm winds will be the rule for the next
operating period of the terminal forecast this afternoon.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Franks
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 2:55 PM EDT---------------
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