MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 7:02 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...435
FXUS64 KMOB 190003
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
702 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 702 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024
VFR ceilings and visibilities through Saturday. Winds will
generally prevail out of the east-northeast at 5 to 10mph, perhaps
approaching 10 to 15mph Saturday near the coast. DS/12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024
Cool and dry weather conditions prevail across the forecast area
as upper ridging continues to build in and surface high pressure
remains in place. Temperatures gradually continue to warm over
the area with highs topping out in the middle to upper 70's for
Saturday. Overnight lows remain chilly tonight in the interior
with lows in the lower to middle 40's. Nearer the coast where
winds stay stronger overnight lows will only fall into the upper
40's to lower 50's, middle 50's along the immediate coast. A High
risk of rip currents continues for our Alabama and Florida
Panhandle coasts through Sunday night. MM/25
SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024
The period from Saturday night through Friday will feature dry
weather with no chance of rain in the forecast. Upper ridging
remains the dominant feature over the forecast area through mid
week. This ridging slowly gets shunted southward owing to the
passing of several upper troughs over the northern half of the
U.S. Tuesday through Friday, with a weaker extension of the last
trough in the period moving over the forecast area Friday. With
persistent ridging and continued easterly to southeasterly low
level flow, expect a gradual increase in temperatures as we go
through the week. Thursday night into Friday is the only part of
the forecast where there is increased uncertainty regarding timing
of the arrival of another cold front which could help bring
temperatures down a bit from what we have forecast right now
presuming it makes it all the way through the forecast area. Highs
start out in the upper 70's to lower 80's Sunday, gradually
warming each day to the middle 80's by mid to late week. Overnight
lows follow suit, going from middle 40's inland and lower to
middle 50's near the coast Saturday night, to middle 50's inland
and upper 50's to lower 60's near the coast by Wednesday night.
MM/25
MARINE...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024
A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the Gulf
Waters, southern Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound starting at
9 PM this evening. The SCA is set to expire for southern Mobile
Bay and the Mississippi Sound at 9 AM Saturday, but remain in
effect through 3 PM Saturday afternoon for the Gulf Waters. An
extension of the advisory may be required in future updates for
the 20 to 60 nautical mile waters adjacent to Alabama as seas
could remain elevated around 7 to 8 feet through Saturday night.
Moderate to strong easterly flow persists through Sunday for the 0
to 60 nautical mile gulf waters, with bays and sounds tapering to
a light to moderate easterly flow late Saturday into Sunday.
Light to at times moderate easterly flow then prevails starting
Monday. MM/25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 51 79 53 82 53 83 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 58 79 58 80 58 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 60 79 60 79 60 80 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 44 77 46 80 47 82 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 43 77 46 80 48 82 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 43 75 44 79 45 80 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 50 79 48 81 48 82 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ631-632.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ650-655-670-
675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 7:02 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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