IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 12:08 AM EDT186
FXUS63 KIND 190408
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1208 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet, pleasant weather expected through at least early next week
- Near to above-average temperatures favored through the weekend and
into next week
- The next chance for rain will be Tuesday and Wednesday
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024
Clear and cool evening in progress as expansive high pressure covers
much of the eastern half of the country. Satellite imagery tonight
showing that there are not any clouds within 400-500 miles of
central Indiana if not further. 01Z temperatures ranged generally
from the mid 40s to the mid 50s.
Forecast is in excellent shape for the overnight. Quiet weather will
continue with clear skies and near calm winds. With some of the
rural locations again slipping down into the upper 30s by
daybreak...cannot rule out patchy frost accrual. May also see light
fog focused primarily in the river valleys...but the overall dry and
subsident airmass present will substantially limit coverage.
Zone and grid updates out.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024
Tranquil weather with and warmer temperatures are in store for
central Indiana through Saturday and beyond. GOES-16 visible loop
and obs are indicating sunny skies with temperatures in the 60s and
RH greater than 30% early this afternoon due to the influence of a
surface high pressure ridge from New England to the Deep South, an
upper ridge from Quebec to the Deep South and a very dry column per
Hi-Res soundings.
Surface high pressure and the bone dry column will continue to
provide dry weather and clear skies through Saturday despite the
upper ridge flattening on Saturday well downstream of a southwestern
cutoff low. Mixing has had a negligible effect on dew points so far
this afternoon due to the weak wind below the approximate 3,500 foot
mixing height. Despite RH levels approaching 30% and fuel moisture
approaching 8%, the lack of 20 foot winds will discourage wildfire
spread this afternoon and Saturday afternoon.
The small DESI grand ensemble interquartile temperature range lends
high confidence in slightly below normal overnight lows in the upper
30s and lower 40s tonight. Meanwhile, look for temperatures to warm
to the lower 70s over most locales Saturday as 850 millibar
temperatures reach 11 degrees Celsius.
&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024
Generally quiet weather is expected through the long range as upper-
level ridging and surface high pressure dominate our synoptic scale
pattern.
Given the synoptic pattern mentioned above, a dry and subsident
atmospheric column will promote mainly clear skies through the
weekend and into early next week. Weather at the surface will be
determined by boundary layer processes. Namely, strong radiational
cooling and formation of a strong inversion at night and unimpeded
2solar insolation and deep mixing during the daylight hours.
Guidance typically runs a bit too warm at night and a bit too cool
during the day in these patterns. As such, we will widen the
diurnal temperature swing through early next week. Other
deviations from guidance in these patterns include dew points
being too high. Additionally, patchy fog may fog at times each
night and could be missed by guidance.
By about Tuesday next week, ensembles show a weak/weakening upper
low sliding northeastwards out of New Mexico. This feature may bring
a few isolated showers as it passes just to our northwest.
Probability of showers at any one location appears low, and given
antecedent dry conditions am inclined not to go higher than 25
percent PoPs. Beyond that, ensemble guidance largely remains dry and
warm.
Fire weather potential: with above-average tempertures and prolonged
dry conditions fire weather potential must be taken into
consideration. As of right now, winds to not appear strong enough
through the long range period to warrant a fire weather concern.
Surface high pressure remains close enough to Indiana to keep
stronger gradient flow displaced well to our northwest. With little
rain in the forecast, however, surface fuels should continue to dry
out.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1208 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
Impacts:
- None; VFR.
Discussion:
Confidence is high for VFR flying conditions through at least Sunday
morning.
Surface high pressure and upper ridging along with a very dry column
will result in clear skies throughout the forecast period. As the
strong surface high pressure system settles across the southeastern
states, surface winds will shift from southeast to southerly, but
still remain light with a typical diurnal pattern.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...Puma
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 12:08 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
