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469 FXUS64 KLIX 140919AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA419 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024Warming trend will continue today as highs warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s. The 2 fronts that will be moving through the area today and Tue have been stalled for about 24hrs. The reason for this is the strong short wave that is dumping in the back side of the upper east CONUS trough causing it to stall or stand while this occurs. The short wave can be seen in WV imagery moving south over NE Manitoba this morning. Both of these fronts will get a quick kick this morning as this short wave causes the long wave trough to dig south. The first of these will move in quickly and stall over the area this evening. The second one that has been over the northern tier of states will begin to race southward starting tonight and by Tue morning we will see this front moving rapidly toward our area reaching us by this evening. That's about 12 hours from the midwest states to the gulf which puts its speed at around 20kt. That doesn't seem like much, but for a synoptic system, that could result in a speeding ticket. Patchy fog could be found this morning but this should not impact roadways around the area with the exception of less traveled roads through wooded areas.Models are trying to produce rainfall with this second fropa Tue evening. But when looking at why and where the QPF is located, it makes sense for a few locations but not others. For example, the DelT of the SST(~80F) and air mass moving in at 925mb(~50F) is 30F. This is a very large amount and would cause most if not all wind speeds from 1kft to hit the sfc over water and a bit lower for land areas. This would allow for moisture pickup from the marine environment and this is exactly what the QPF structure is showing. But there are other locations over land areas that there is no moisture to transport for rain production. The other issue with any rainfall is the depth of cloud mass. There will surely be clouds developed as usual with these types of fronts, but the cloud deck is stuck at around 900mb(3k-4kft) and is only a few kft thick. This is enough to make a few sprinkles, but not any measureable rain for any land areas. The only location that this may not hold for is the south shore if enough moisture can be transported from Lake Pontchartrain. For the most part, models are basically indicating the cloud field production brought about by the very warm waters destroying the low level inversion of the arctic air mass to transport moisture upward. Could there be some showers with this over marine areas? yes, but would be light. We have trimmed away any precip over land with exception of south shore areas, but also kept precip chances very low in those locations. But it will be breezy and cool for all areas Tue night and Wed.&&.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024Waking up to Wed morning temps will be a bit chilly for the first time this fall season. Most will wake to temps in the 50s and some to the upper 40s. For highs Wed, everyone will struggle to get much above 70F. After Wed, a slow moderation of the air mass will start and we should tack on a few degrees each day to lows and highs.&&.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024VFR through this cycle.&&.MARINE...Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024Winds will remain light and variable as sfc high pressure sits right over the northern gulf late today. A cold front will stall just inland or right at the coast this evening keeping conditions tranquil. Another cold front will quickly move through the northern gulf Tue night bringing strong NE winds of 25kt with some gusts up to gale force. Winds will come around to E at 20kt and hold through the weekend. Winds will slowly come down to 15kt to start the new week and finally ease to 10kt by mid week.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 85 57 83 47 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 91 65 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 88 62 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 88 69 85 59 / 0 0 0 10 GPT 88 63 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 91 62 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...TELONG TERM....TEAVIATION...TEMARINE...TE
