PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 1:59 PM CDT204
FXUS63 KPAH 171859
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
159 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High pressure will bring clear skies, light winds, and a
prolonged warming trend into next week. High temperatures will
climb back to normal levels in the lowers 70s Friday and then
climb to near 80 by next Wednesday. Lows will remain on the
cool side, mainly in the 40s.
- A few light showers will be possible mainly over the northern
half of the Quad State as an upper-level disturbance passes
Monday night into Tuesday morning
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024
An upper level and surface ridge is making its way eastward
across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures are slightly warmer today
than yesterday. Surface dewpoints are also creeping upward in
southwest Kentucky. Very light winds should go mostly calm
overnight and another night of good radiational cooling
conditions are anticipated. The warmer river waters will make a
prime breeding ground for fog once again despite the marginal
surface moisture. Frost is possible across most of the area
again tonight. Coordinated with WFO Louisville and the UK Ag
Extension office on one more frost advisory for the Pennyrile
region as some of those areas didn't quite get a killing frost
overnight last night, where most of the area had a heavy frost
or an outright freeze overnight.
Surface ridging should stay centered over the central
Appalachian mountains for the next few days, with light
southerly winds and rising mid level heights leading to a slow
rise in temperatures from day to day. The only real ripple in
the pattern is a lumbering upper low tracking slowly eastward
through Monday night into Tuesday. Moisture return remains
extremely limited due to the depth of the frontal intrusion on
the Gulf of Mexico. That system brings a modest cold front
through on Tuesday or early Wednesday that doesn't look to bring
a significant change of airmass, nor much in the way of
precipitation. Essentially giving us seasonable temperatures and
generally dry conditions through the rest of the forecast
period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024
VFR conditions are forecast through the day today with very
light southeast winds. Tonight ground fog will be possible
particularly around area lakes and rivers, with IFR conditions
possible, particularly CGI mixing out fairly quickly after
sunrise.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ to 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/
Friday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for KYZ010>022.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 1:59 PM CDT---------------
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