PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 2:59 AM CDT082
FXUS63 KPAH 170759
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
259 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dense fog has developed along many area rivers and lakes. With
the potential for sub-freezing temperatures, some hazardous
driving conditions could develop on bridges. Reduced
visibilities and slick roads will both be concerns through
around 8 AM.
- A Freeze Warning is in effect for the entire Quad State region
until 8 AM this morning. Widespread frost and a light freeze
are expected. More frost is possible tonight.
- High pressure will bring clear skies, light winds, and a
prolonged warming trend into next week. High temperatures will
climb back to normal levels in the lowers 70s Friday and then
climb to near 80 by next Wednesday. Lows will remain on the
cool side, mainly in the 40s.
- A few light showers will be possible mainly over the northern
half of the Quad State as an upper-level disturbance passes
Monday night into Tuesday morning
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024
Forgot the mention the river/lake fog that is showing real well
on satellite imagery. Reduced visibility will be a concern on
bridges across area waterways, but as temperatures drop below
freezing, some slick spots could exasperate the situation. The
danger will be maximized at sunrise around 7 AM and should be
over by 8 AM.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024
Noticing less wind tonight compared to last night, and
temperatures are cooler, as well. Most locations should see a
widespread frost and a brief light freeze this morning. The
Freeze Warning will continue unchanged through 8 AM. Not sure if
the back-to-back frosts will be enough to declare the growing
season over or not. Will let the day shift coordinate this with
our partners. Some frost is likely over much of the region again
tonight.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate the Quad
State through the weekend. The result will be few, if any,
clouds, light and variable winds, and a strong warming trend.
The air mass will remain quite dry, so although high
temperatures will climb well above normal this weekend, lows
will struggle to climb to normal levels. Generally went with the
50th percentile of the NBM to get the enhanced diurnal range
through Friday, then left the NBM temperatures alone for the
rest of the forecast.
A closed upper low will move east from the central Plains Monday
to the Ohio Valley Tuesday. A south wind will develop Monday,
as the surface high loosens its grip on the region. However, the
upper low will not have any tangible surface system. The result
will be an increase in mid and high level clouds Monday night
into Tuesday morning. With no surface system and continued very
dry air in the low-levels, precipitation will be limited to
sprinkles or a hundredth or two, mainly across the northern half
of the area.
By mid-week, the upper flow will be zonal or west northwesterly,
which will eventually help a weak cold front pass Wednesday
night into next Thursday. This system will be as moisture-
starved as the previous one, so precipitation chances and QPF
will be minimal. The bonafide southerly surface flow next week
will allow temperatures to continue upward with some 80 degree
readings possible Wednesday. A modest cool down will be
possible behind the front for next Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024
High pressure will keep winds calm overnight at the terminals.
Sporadic MIFG will be possible in the 09-13z window at CGI and
MVN, where forecast lows are below the crossover temperature
threshold. Winds after daybreak will be light and variable,
becoming calm again Thursday evening.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Freeze Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...Freeze Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...Freeze Warning until 7 AM CDT /8 AM EDT/ this morning for
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Freeze Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DWS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 2:59 AM CDT---------------
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