ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 3:21 PM EDT221
FXUS61 KILN 171921
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
321 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
As the airmass over the Ohio Valley moderates going forward, both
daytime high and overnight lows will warm a little each day. At this
moment in time, the forecast is dry with a slight indication of a
frontal passage and low chance of rain just beyond the last valid
forecast period of Wednesday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A vertically deep high pressure system will remain over the forecast
area tonight. With clear skies and light wind, lows tonight
will drop into the mid 30s.
Another frost advisory has been hoisted tonight for the bulk of
the forecast area with the exception of the Scioto Valley and
eastward. The western 4/5 of the CWA and Franklin County did not
have a low enough temperature or only touched this freezing
mark for a brief period. Therefore they will be the area
contained within tonight's frost advisory.
While MOS guidance is showing warmer lows tonight than is being
forecast, the range from daytime highs to overnight lows may be a
solid 30 degree diurnal given the dryness of the airmass (10th
percentile from this morning's sounding).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Axis of the surface high pressure ridge will remain over the CWA
and region in a sw-ne orientation. Upper ridge will be overtop
the CWA during the day and move east overnight.
Clear skies and light winds will result in yet another
favorable radiational cooling setup. Starting from daytime highs
in the upper 60s, overnight lows should drop to the upper 30s,
maybe near 40. This could once again be a warm side by a bit,
but another 30 degree diurnal is a real possibility from Fri-Fri
night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Quiet weather will be in place for most of the long term.
Saturday through Monday will be dry with mostly clear skies.
Cannot rule out some isolated patchy frost in some of the cooler
spots, however with the warming temperatures for the weekend
and into early next week do not expect a lot in the way of
frost. High temperatures during the Saturday to Monday timeframe
will be in the 70s in most locations.
There will be a slight chance for a few showers Tuesday afternoon
and into the evening hours as a quick moving system moves through.
There are indications of another system moving through Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night that will bring some scattered shower
activity to the region. There are some differences in the details
with this system and therefore limited precipitation chances to the
chance category for now. A quick shot of cooler air will be brought
into the region however for Wednesday night into Thursday before
beginning to rebound again. There will also be some wind gusts
around 20 to 25 mph possible with the Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night system.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Clear skies and light winds are forecast through the next 24-30
hours given strong high pressure entrenched over the region.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for OHZ026-034-035-
042>045-051>055-060>063-070>072-077>081.
KY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Franks
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 3:21 PM EDT---------------
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