LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 12, 11:54 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...861
FXUS64 KLIX 130454
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1154 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024
Beautiful blue skies and light winds continue across the area on
this fine autumn Saturday. Surface high pressure is situated over
northern Georgia and elongated southwest across coastal
Louisiana and will gradually shift southeastward during the next
two days allowing for a subtle wind shift to a more southwesterly
component. The strong radiational cooling regime in place with
clear skies the next two nights which will be favorable for some
river fog around sunrise as we get a subtle increase in surface
moisture from the southwesterly flow from the northwest GOMEX.
Tonight will be a good test to see just how much fog develops, but
SREF fog probs are not particularly strong (15-30%). Have mention
of patchy fog the next two nights primarily for river basin areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024
The fairly benign pattern continues for us through the long term
with the only noteworthy story being the cold front moving into
the area on Tuesday. Timing of the front has trended slightly
slower, but still focused around Tuesday evening as the strong
shortwave trough dives out of the Great Lakes region into the
southeast CONUS driving colder, drier air into the northern Gulf
Coast. No rain chances through the week as dry air and high
pressure dominate the forecast behind the cold front. Wednesday
and beyond will feature beautiful, cool fall weather with lows
even reaching the 40s north of the I-10 corridor on Thursday
morning. Looks like we will warm back up into the 80s and have a
shot at increasing PoPs by next weekend when southwesterly mid-
level flow sets up over the central CONUS and ridging dominates
the eastern CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024
Clear skies and light and variable winds are expected for the
whole forecast period. Light patchy fog might be possible at a few
of the terminals in the early morning hours, but should be minimal
to no impact and dissipate quickly after sunrise.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024
5-10kt northeasterly winds will continues with surface high
pressures situated along the coast but will flip westerly ahead of
the cold front as the high shifts southward. One of two cold
fronts could stall inland Monday evening with a secondary front
forcing the first with it through the northern gulf Tue evening
bringing NE winds of around 20kt with gusts up to 30kt Tue night
into Wed. These winds will slowly come around to an easterly
direction through the rest of the week while and ease to around 15
knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 58 87 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 63 91 67 92 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 60 86 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 64 87 67 88 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 63 84 66 88 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 59 88 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...TJS
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 12, 11:54 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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