LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 1:24 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...382
FXUS63 KLMK 190524
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
124 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* The 2024 growing season has ended. Frost/Freeze headlines will
not be issued again until Spring 2025.
* Beautiful weather over the weekend with slowly warming
temperatures through the weekend into next week.
* Cold front mid next week to bring a return of near normal
temperatures and a small chance for showers.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024
Favorable radiational cooling conditions tonight with clear skies, a
dry air mass, and a long night ahead, which will combine to overcome
a light E-NE breeze. Impressive ridge/valley splits developing with
valley locations in the 40s and ridges and urban locations still
close to 60. Will open up bigger temp ranges in the gridded forecast
and hi-res products, but would not expect legacy text products to
capture these differences.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024
Upper level ridging and strong 1036mb sfc high pressure has kept
just about all of the US east of the Mississippi River free of any
clouds today. After another chilly start this morning, temps have
reached the mid-60s. Clear and calm weather will continue this
evening and tonight.
For tonight, temperatures will be slightly warmer relative to this
morning, with most areas forecast to cool into the mid-upper 30s and
lower 40s. Our cooler valleys and other low-lying areas could end up
a few degrees cooler, with some frost potential. Guidance is also
suggesting that overnight sfc dewpoint depressions will be tight,
and with calm winds expected, could end up having some patchy dense
fog in some areas. This will especially be the case near bodies of
water, which we have seen the last few mornings as well.
After holding a call with other WFOs and KY Ag partners this
afternoon, it was determined that the growing season has ended. We
will not be issuing any more Frost or Freeze headlines until spring
2025.
Gorgeous weather continues tomorrow with high pressure still
dominating the eastern half of the country. We'll have temps reach
the lower 70s, with light winds, and plenty of sunshine.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024
To start out the long term period, upper level ridging and surface
high pressure will be featured over the eastern CONUS and troughing
will be over the western CONUS. These upper-level features will
strengthen through Monday. This will result in slowly warming
temperatures in the Ohio Valley. By Monday, high temperatures will
be above normal in the mid-upper 70s. Continued sunny/clear skies,
light winds, and dry conditions will last through early next week.
Looks to be a beautiful few days in long term.
Mid next week, troughing over the SW CONUS will swing through the
Central Plains and into the Great Lakes region. Simultaneously,
troughing will move across southern Canada and into the Great Lakes
region. Some additional cloud coverage will result from the first
trough, then a cold front with the next trough. Ahead and along the
cold front, there is a small chance for showers. However, given
limited moisture return ahead of this front, there will be little
QPF. Best chance for PoPs is over the NW half of the region. Ahead
of the front, temperatures will remain above normal by about 8-11
degrees. Behind the front, temperatures will fall to near normal or
slightly below normal.
Late next week, high pressure will once again fill into the region
leading to dry and near normal conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 123 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
We will continue with VFR flight categories through the forecast
with the exception of RGA where we are still keeping some low
likelihood of MVFR VIS in the predawn hours. Winds will also remain
light at below 5kts but some mixing in the afternoon could see winds
shift and become southwest but for now left VRB winds in the
forecast.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAS
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...SRM
AVIATION...BTN
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 1:24 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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