JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 10:56 PM EDT554
FXUS63 KJKL 180256
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1056 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Frost is expected in valley locations again late tonight into
Friday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1056 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2024
Temperatures are dipping into the mid/upper 30s in the sheltered
valleys and low-lying areas late this evening -- places where
widespread frost is most likely to occur. Most other locations
are stilling falling through 40s. Anticipate fog formation to
begin shortly in the valleys of the main stem rivers and larger
tributaries, limiting the risk of widespread frost there. Forecast
and Frost Advisory remain on track.
UPDATE Issued at 735 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2024
Other than some minor adjustments to bring forecast temperatures
in line with observation, no changes were needed. Temperatures are
dropping through the 40s in many valley locales and into the 40s
atop the ridges. We are on track to see widespread 30s overnight
along with extensive frost in many valley and low-lying locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 322 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2024
The latest surface analysis has high pressure situated across much
of the CONUS. High pressure has kept mostly clear skies across the
region but with low-level moisture in place, a stratocumulus deck
has developed over portions of eastern Kentucky but not to the
extent that it was yesterday. As limited cloud cover exists,
temperatures have been able to climb into the upper-50s to low-60s
which is on track for highs to be in the lower-60s for many places
this afternoon. Overnight, clear skies and light winds are expected
but with low-level flow out of the east-northeast; temperatures are
forecast to be a little warmer with the aid of this flow direction
and increased moisture. This combination will keep the area warmer
overnight but widespread frost will still be possible; therefore,
another Frost Advisory was issued.
Friday will be a carbon-copy of today but a few degrees warmer as
the surface high shifts off to the northeast. Highs for Friday are
expected to climb into the mid to upper-60s. Similarly to Thursday
night, Friday night into Saturday morning will feature mostly clear
skies but with low-level east to southeasterly flow around the high,
temperatures aren't going to fall to much below freezing. However,
the most sheltered valleys could still see instances of frost.
Overall, the forecast period will be highlighted by one more night
of widespread frost potential before a low-level flow direction
changes leading to decreasing frost chances and warming temperatures
for the end of the period.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2024
Seasonably strong ridging will start out across the East, while a
cutoff low churns over Arizona. The models are in decent agreement
into early next week, although smaller scale feature differences
show a typically greater spread as the long wave pattern turns
more progressive with time. Ridging will generally dominate east
of the Mississippi River through early Tuesday. Faster west
northwest flow will then remain in place across the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys through the end of the period, with additional
traversing short wave energy moving through the region. At the
surface, high pressure will remain entrenched from the Mid-
Atlantic through middle Mississippi Valley through Monday night,
before shifting east by Tuesday. A cold front will eventually
slide through the Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday, perhaps
initiating a few showers across the area as it does so.
Temperatures will be averaging above normal prior to this front
crossing the region, before readings cool off behind the departed
boundary into Thursday.
Sensible weather across eastern Kentucky will feature dry
conditions, with more seasonably typical larger diurnal
temperature swings between the overnight and daytime periods.
Given the pattern in place, will continue to favor cooler valley
nightly lows, as well as slightly warmer highs compared to
blended guidance. Lows will moderate from the 30s and 40s this
weekend, to the 40s and 50s by the middle of next week, with
widening ridge/valley temperature splits leading up to the
approach of the cold front. A slight chance (20%) of showers will
also be possible Wednesday night and Thursday, mainly northeast,
where mid and upper level support will be slightly better. Highs
will warm through the 70s into Wednesday, before cooling off to
the upper 60s to around 70 by Thursday, behind the exited cold
front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2024
VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance. Clear skies and light
winds should allow for the return of river valley fog again
tonight. While there is a small chance that this fog could sneak
into KSME or perhaps another TAF terminal overnight, that risk
appears remote a this time and was not included in the TAFs. Substantial
IFR or worse impacts in river valley fog are probable at the
usual suspect non-TAF terminals (e.g. KBYL, KI35, and K1A6) after
4Z. Fog will burn off around 14Z Friday and be followed by a
return to VFR area-wide under clear skies. Winds are forecast to
remain light and variable through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 10:56 PM EDT---------------
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