LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 6:22 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...909
FXUS64 KLIX 112322
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
622 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024
Ridging remains centered along the Arizona-New Mexico border.
There is a shortwave near Shreveport this afternoon this afternoon
that will eventually shift off the Louisiana coast on Saturday.
Precipitable water values around 0.7 inches are about the 10th
percentile climatologically for mid-October. And those values
don't really change much through Saturday night.
Aside from a few mid or high clouds associated with the shortwave
near Shreveport, no impactful weather is anticipated. The low
relative humidity values should allow for diurnal temperature
spread of 30 degrees or more in areas away from marine influences.
That should put just about everyone in the 85 to 90 range for
tomorrow, even with a light sea breeze along the coast. Overnight
lows shouldn't be any cooler than they were this morning, and
possibly a degree or two warmer.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024
Northwesterly upper flow will continue through at least mid-week
next week. A strong trough moving through the Great Lakes will aid
in pushing a cold front across the area on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Precipitable water values struggle to even reach the 50th
percentile ahead of the front. It should be noted that the 12z
ECMWF operational run is a significant departure from it's 00z
version in producing some rain with the frontal passage on
Wednesday, along with shunting any significantly cooler and/or
drier air well to the east. In fact, the 12z ECMWF operational
numbers came in at or above the highest member of their 00z
ensemble for mid to late week.
Prior to the frontal passage, guidance is in good agreement, and
the NBM numbers track fairly well with those, trending toward or
above the warmer highs where there are differences. Will keep
the mid-week forecast dry in agreement with previous guidance for
this run. The NBM temperature/PoP guidance used for mid-week next
week wouldn't incorporate the 12z medium range solutions yet, so
if things trend toward the 12z ECMWF, warmer/wetter adjustments
may be necessary in later packages, beginning with the Tuesday
forecast. It should be noted that there are 15 degree differences
between operational model solutions for overnight lows at some
sites on low temperatures Wednesday and Thursday mornings which
lowers forecast confidence. High temperature spreads aren't quite
as large, but still significant.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024
VFR conditions continue for the forecast period. Clear skies and
light winds are expected. -BL
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024
No marine issues anticipated until after frontal passage at mid-
week, when Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft
Advisories may be necessary, associated with the cold air
advection behind the front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 55 86 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 58 89 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 56 86 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 63 84 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 59 84 61 85 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 56 87 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...RW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 6:22 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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