JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 3:22 PM EDT003
FXUS63 KJKL 171922
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
322 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Frost is expected in valley locations again late tonight into
Friday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 322 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2024
The latest surface analysis has high pressure situated across much
of the CONUS. High pressure has kept mostly clear skies across the
region but with low-level moisture in place, a stratocumulus deck
has developed over portions of eastern Kentucky but not to the
extent that it was yesterday. As limited cloud cover exists,
temperatures have been able to climb into the upper-50s to low-60s
which is on track for highs to be in the lower-60s for many places
this afternoon. Overnight, clear skies and light winds are expected
but with low-level flow out of the east-northeast; temperatures are
forecast to be a little warmer with the aid of this flow direction
and increased moisture. This combination will keep the area warmer
overnight but widespread frost will still be possible; therefore,
another Frost Advisory was issued.
Friday will be a carbon-copy of today but a few degrees warmer as
the surface high shifts off to the northeast. Highs for Friday are
expected to climb into the mid to upper-60s. Similarly to Thursday
night, Friday night into Saturday morning will feature mostly clear
skies but with low-level east to southeasterly flow around the high,
temperatures aren't going to fall to much below freezing. However,
the most sheltered valleys could still see instances of frost.
Overall, the forecast period will be highlighted by one more night
of widespread frost potential before a low-level flow direction
changes leading to decreasing frost chances and warming temperatures
for the end of the period.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT THU OCT 17 2024
The extended portion of the forecast looks to be quiet and generally
uneventful, typical of what is often experienced at this time of
year. Aloft, we begin under a highly amplified pattern...with strong
ridging over the eastern CONUS, and a deep low over the Four
Corners. This low, through the course of the extended, lifts out of
the Four Corners and winds up over the Mid-Atlantic in a much
weakened state by the end of the period, tracking through the
Central Plains and Midwest along the way. What is left of this
weakened low, or by that time trough, moves through our area at the
very end of the period. At the surface, high pressure, anchored over
the Upper Ohio Valley, shifts slightly eastward through the period,
leaving eastern Kentucky under increasingly influential southerly
flow by the end of the forecast window.
For eastern Kentucky, dry weather is expected, as ridging aloft and
at the surface keep control of the pattern until the end of the
period...last 24 hours. Drier air in the column will allow for large
diurnal swings (~30 degrees) each day. This pattern generally favors
cooler valley lows than the blended guidance suggests, as well as
slightly warmer highs, especially, as the surface high shifts off to
our east a little more each day, causing at least modest return flow
to ensue across the region. Lows will moderate from the 30s and 40s
this weekend, to the 40s and 50s by the middle of next week, with
widening overnight ridge/valley temperature splits towards the end
of the period. Afternoon highs will climb into the 70s each day. A
moisture starved, weak disturbance will bring additional cloud
cover to the area at the end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2024
VFR conditions are prevailing across the area with this issuance.
A stratocumulus deck has developed; while this deck is VFR,
terminals could briefly dip into MVFR as this deck is ranges from
3,000 to 5,000 feet. Over the next few hours, this cloud deck
will dissipate and a return to VFR is expected. Overnight, clear
skies and light winds will allow for river valley fog development
which could leak into KSME, KLOZ and KSYM and cause a reduction in
category. Otherwise, fog will burn off around 14Z and a return to
VFR is likely. Lastly, winds are forecast to remain light and
variable through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Friday for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...RAY/JKL
AVIATION...VORST
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 3:22 PM EDT---------------
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