NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 10, 7:00 PM AST316
WTNT43 KNHC 101433
TCDAT3
Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 10 2024
The satellite presentation of Leslie has degraded since the previous
advisory. Strong northerly wind shear has been pushing most of the
convection to the south side of the low-level center. The most
recent GOES-16 images suggest that the low-level center is likely
just barely underneath the northern edge of the central dense
overcast. The latest subjective current intensity values from TAFB
and SAB are still 90 kt due to continuity constraints, but the
latest ADT and AiDT intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have decreased
down to 72 kt. The intensity is set to 80 kt, as a blend of all the
estimates.
Leslie has already entered the strong northerly shear zone that has
been advertised in previous discussions, and the guidance indicates
that the shear will continue to increase to over 40 kt over the next
12 to 24 h. Shear that strong, combined with the dry environment
that Leslie is embedded within, is likely to lead to steady to rapid
weakening. The NHC forecast calls for Leslie to weaken by 35 kt
over the next 36 h, in good agreement with the HCCA corrected
consensus, HAFS models, and the intensity consensus. After that,
the models hold on to Leslie, and there is quite a bit of
uncertainty in the timing of when Leslie will become post-tropical.
GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery indicate that puffs of
convection could continue through the weekend. The cyclone is also
likely to interact with an approaching frontal system by Sunday.
The NHC forecast continues to call for Leslie to become
post-tropical by day 3.
The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/6
kt. Model guidance is in excellent agreement that a northward turn
will happen very soon as Leslie moves around the southwestern
periphery of a subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. On
Friday and Friday night, the hurricane should speed up and turn to
the northeast, followed by an east-northeastward turn as it
accelerates further over the weekend. The latest NHC track forecast
is slightly west of the previous one during the first 48 hours of
the forecast, and nearly identical to the previous forecast
thereafter. The official forecast is in best agreement with the
TVCA consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 23.2N 50.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 24.0N 50.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 25.7N 50.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 28.1N 48.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 30.8N 45.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 33.3N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 35.2N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 14/1200Z 36.6N 25.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 10, 7:00 PM AST---------------
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