IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 1:25 PM EDT482
FXUS63 KIWX 141725
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
125 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Lake effect rain showers likely near Lake Michigan this
afternoon through early Tuesday night.
* Notably colder through Thursday morning with frost and freeze
conditions possible, especially Wednesday/Thursday AM.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024
Mid lvl deformation zone through srn MI/nrn IN in association
with intense shortwave disturbance headed toward KCLE by
daybreak will accelerate swd early this morning and weaken as
forcing rapidly shifts east. In its wake low level flow veers
nrly as lake based low level thermal trough deepens. This will
ignite intense lake banding initially closer to the ern
shoreline yet in time advancing into far nw zones for a time by
mid aftn. Thereafter expect more solidified band will back west
as flow over lower MI veers nerly timed with elongating upper
trough axis late tonight before eventually waffling back east
later Tue night.
Inland areas, outside this morning, will largely remain dry and
likely to clear out in time especially Tue and Wed night east of US
31. However abundant lake generated cloud cover as cold advection
wing wraps ewd today should preclude frost tonight. Thus will punt
on needed frost/freeze headlines at this time range.
Cool temps through Wed will break sharply warmer late period as
broad and deepening swrly flow aloft develops over the ern US.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 613 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024
With a shift to more northwesterly winds a current lake effect
plume pushing southward of Lake Michigan will begin to shift in
response to a more southeasterly direction and with colder
temperatures tonight will also push rain showers further inland
first affecting KSBN after 21z Monday and start increasing
chances of rain showers after 00z Tuesday for KFWA. Showers
should remain light and vsbys should stay 6 SM or greater. Still
expecting mostly VFR cigs/vsby through the TAF period outside of
a few lowered cigs in some of the bands perhaps getting around
3000 ft but would only be temporary.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Andersen
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 1:25 PM EDT---------------
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