BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 9:31 AM EDT440
FXUS61 KBOX 131331
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
931 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will bring periods of rain to northern MA today with
spotty light showers south of the MA Pike. Low pressure tracking
across the region tonight will bring more showers which will linger
into Monday morning as a cold front sweeps through, then trending
drier and breezy for the afternoon. Though dry weather will prevail,
blustery with below normal temperatures are expected Tuesday and
Wednesday, with a gradual warming trend beginning Thursday into
next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM Update...
Area of light rain continues to push east as 750mb jet max and
weak mid level convergence moves over the region. After this
initial area of rain pushes through, guidance shows a break
this afternoon before filling back in early this evening. The
heaviest rain should stay north of the MA border with periods
of light to moderate showers north of the MA pike. South of the
MA pike, showers will be more scattered in nature with better
forcing from the shortwave to the north.
7 AM Update...
Current radar shows rain extending across western MA this
morning with some scattered light showers in north central CT.
This batch of showers is a bit more extensive than forecast, so
made some minor edits to reflect current trends. This batch of
showers should move eastward over the course of the morning.
Previous Discussion:
Low pres moves east moves from the Ohio valley today with a warm
front setting up south of New Eng today. Area of rain to the north
of the boundary is moving east from western and central NY and will
impact portions of SNE today. Deep moisture plume will be focused
north of the MA Pike today where periods of rain expected, beginning
around daybreak in NW MA and spreading east through the morning and
afternoon. The rain is in response to a modest low level jet
intersecting the 850 mb warm front resulting in decent frontogenesis
and forcing for ascent. Overall, looking like a chilly wet day in
northern MA with rainfall 0.10 to 0.50 inches, highest amounts in NW
MA. However, there is a good moisture gradient to the south with
much less moisture as you head toward the south coast. As a result
expecting just scattered light showers south of the MA Pike and
likely remaining mostly dry closer to the south coast. In fact, some
sunshine is expected here as drying in the 850-700 mb layer moves up
from the south in the afternoon. There will be a sharp temp gradient
from NW MA to the south coast as the warm front lifts to near the
south coast later today. Cooler low level temps and rainfall will
result in highs mid-upper 40s interior northern MA, then warming
through the 50s as you head south from the MA Pike. Temps should
reach into the 60s near the south coast and Cape/Islands by late in
the day as warm front approaches and winds veer to the SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Tonight...
Amplifying mid level trough swings through the Gt Lakes tonight.
Best low level forcing will move to the north tonight as the 850 mb
warm front lifts into northern New Eng. Steadier rainfall will
gradually shift to the north with rainfall becoming more scattered
in SNE as deep moisture becomes fragmented. Scattered showers will
eventually impact the south coast tonight as low pres tracks along
the warm frontal boundary and moves into SNE. There is also some
elevated instability that develops near the south coast at the nose
of a low level jet to the south so can't rule out an isolated t-
storm for the south coast and Cape/Islands after midnight. Lows will
be mostly in the 40s, but temps holding steady in the 50s SE New Eng
coast which will be in the warm sector.
Monday...
Scattered showers should linger into Mon morning as the cold front
moves through. Still some timing differences but the front should be
moving off the coast during the afternoon followed by blustery NW
winds developing. The mid level trough and potent shortwave will be
moving through in the afternoon, so can't rule out a few afternoon
showers but the trend will be for drying conditions with partly
sunny skies developing. Highs will range through the 50s, but likely
reaching mid-upper 60s along the south coast and Cape/Islands where
axis of warmer 925 mb temps lingers before moving offshore.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Monday Night:
By Monday night, the cold front will be fully through the region
with cold air advecting in from west to east. By Tuesday morning,
925mb temperatures may drop as low as -2C, so decent CAA possible
during the overnight period. Temperatures drop into mid to upper 30s
with some nearing the freezing mark in the higher elevation spots.
It may end up a bit cooler if winds trend weaker overnight.
Tuesday - Wednesday:
A deep trough and upper low remain in place across the northeast
through midweek. Below normal 850mb temperatures accompany this
pattern resulting in a fairly cool couple of days. Highs Tuesday and
Wednesday remain in the 50s, with upper 40s in spots. Cool nights
can be expected as well with lows dipping into the 30s for the
interior with lows around the freezing mark for the higher
elevations. Some of the coastal areas drop into the upper 30s while
others drop into the low 40s. Flow aloft stays consistently out of
the NW during this period with breezy NW surface winds each day.
Conditions will be mainly dry supported by subsident flow, but can't
rule out a few off shore showers.
Thursday - Friday:
The main axis of the trough shifts to the east of the region on
Thursday as an mid-level ridge approaches from the west. This will
be a transition day before the ridge advects in higher highs and
warmer temperatures. Highs trend slightly warmer Thursday with highs
slowly rebounding into the mid/upper 50s. The warming trend
continues into Friday with highs rising back into the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
12z TAF Update:
Today...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR cigs south of the MA Pike, with lowering cigs to MVFR
to the north in the afternoon. Periods of rain focused north of
the MA Pike, with mainly dry conditions closer to the south
coast. E to N winds 5-10 kt, becoming SE-S 10-15 kt late in the
day Cape/Islands.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
Conditions lowering to MVFR then IFR across much of SNE, except
VFR over ACK. Scattered showers, most numerous in northern MA.
Low risk for a t-storm south coast and Cape/Islands after
midnight. N winds 5-10 kt, except becoming SW immediate south
coast and Cape/Islands. Increasing SW winds with gusts to 25 kt
developing at ACK.
Monday...Moderate confidence.
IFR-MVFR with scattered showers in the morning improving to VFR
in the toward the afternoon. Wind becoming NW 10-20 kt.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in trends, lower confidence in timing
and specific details.
VFR cigs should last into the afternoon, eventually lowering to
MVFR after 21z and should become IFR tonight. A batch of showers
possible this morning followed by scattered showers developing
in the afternoon. Winds will become NE to 10 kt this afternoon.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in trends, lower confidence in timing
and specific details.
VFR cigs today with a few showers possible. Cigs lowering to
MVFR tonight and may get down to IFR. N winds 5-10 kt.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Columbus Day: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.
Monday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...Easterly winds below SCA will become S over the southern
waters this afternoon as the warm front lifts northward. Gusts to 20
kt expected.
Tonight...Variable winds with NE gusts to 25 kt over NE MA waters as
a low level jet develops from the Gulf of Maine. Meanwhile SW gusts
to 25 kt expected over the southern waters as low pres tracks near
the south coast. Seas build to 6-8 ft over the southern waters.
SCA issued for south coastal waters and it may be needed for NE
MA waters as well for the NE gusts. Scattered showers and an
isolated t-storm possible.
Monday...Variable winds shift to NW during the afternoon behind a
cold front with gusts to 20-25 kt developing.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Columbus Day: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of rain showers.
Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Monday
for ANZ235-237-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Mensch
NEAR TERM...KJC/Mensch/KP
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...KJC/Mensch
MARINE...KJC/Mensch
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 9:31 AM EDT----------------
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