ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 16, 1:17 AM EDT055
FXUS61 KILN 160517
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
117 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level trough of low pressure will cross the Ohio
Valley tonight, with a deep and persistent northerly flow behind
it. This cold air intrusion will remain in place through
Thursday, with temperatures warming a little bit each day. After
showers end this evening, a dry period is in store for the
region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Convective showers have been dissipating post-sunset, and the
entire ILN forecast area should be dry by 0130Z. Continued cold
advection on northwest flow will be the issue overnight, with
temperatures falling well into the 30s. Winds will not go
completely calm in all locations (more likely sheltered or
valley locations) so there may be a disparity in min temps based
on geography and topography, but the cooler spots will
definitely be capable of reaching frost and/or freeze conditions
overnight. No changes to the headlines, and no meaningful
changes to the temperature forecast either. Sky grids were
adjusted with some clouds still holding on in the southern third
of the ILN CWA, but clear to mostly clear conditions elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
While there will be a little more sun and no showers on
Wednesday, the cold air funneling into the region will only
permit highs to reach into the middle 50s.
The high pressure providing these generally clear skies will
settle over the CWA by Thursday morning. The light winds
associated with this and clearing will see similar temperatures
as is expected tonight, between 30 and 35.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains parked over the region Thursday through
at least Monday. Gradual warming is expected through the period
along with mostly clear skies and light winds. Frost will be
possible Thursday morning, Friday morning, and Saturday morning
thanks to favorable conditions for radiational cooling in place.
Above average temperatures are expected by the weekend when
forecast highs reach into the middle 70s once again. Warm
temperatures likely persist into the start of next week due to
southwesterly flow west of the surface high.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Shower activity has dissipated with scattered clouds lingering
overnight. Starting to see some valley fog develop so MVFR VIS
was added to KLUK.
Expect VFR stratocumulus to form around 4kft tomorrow before
clearing after 00Z.
Winds will remain out of the northwest through the period, with
values of around 5 knots early this morning, and 10-12 knots
later this afternoon. Wind calm after 00Z Thursday.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-078>082-088.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ077.
KY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ097>100.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>096.
IN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ050-058-059-
066.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Hatzos
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...McGinnis
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 16, 1:17 AM EDT---------------
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