IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 1:19 PM EDT275
FXUS63 KIWX 131719
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
119 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Chance for scattered showers and an isolated storms late this
afternoon into tonight north of US 6.
* Lake effect rain showers likely near Lake Michigan late
tonight through Monday night.
* Notably colder Monday through Wednesday with frost and freeze
conditions possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024
Elevated convection associated with pronounced frontal scale
circulation through srn MI into nw OH will fade in time through
daybreak as sfc wave lifts out into wrn OH. Otherwise attention
turns toward potent secondary disturbance over nw MN attm as it digs
sharply sewd into nw OH by late evening. Warm advection in tandem
with intense dpva will allow for a resurgence of showers and perhaps
another rumble of thunder through cntrl/srn MI and of which may poke
into far nrn/ne IN late this aftn. Will adjust pops accordingly
given strong cams based consensus guidance.
Upper wave will sharpen a bit further overnight as it amplifies into
wrn NY by Mon morning and support a decaying/fracturing deformation
zone to spread north to south Sun night with diminishing showers.
Meanwhile with passage of upper wave, strong cold advection spreads
in with rapid lake shower development as low level thermal trough
explodes across lake Michigan. Quandry with intense early season
events is how significant lake based instability modulates lake
convergence zone with preponderance of 00Z based cams suggesting as
much. This is fitting given the elongation of upper trough axis
which would favor much of this development steering west out of
the northwest portion of the CWA Mon aftn and night and sitting
just off the ern shoreline. Will make substantial changes to
pops in this time frame to account.
Relaxation/weakening of upper trough axis will allow diminishing
lake banded showers to spread east late Tue before ending
overnight. Inland clearing and ridging likely to yield frost
east/northeast outside lingering lake based stratocu plume but
more widespread threat anticipated for Wed and Thu mornings.
Temps generally quite cool through most of the period although
strong moderation and sharply warmer weather expected late week as
broad and deepening swrly flow aloft develops.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024
As the trough continues to move southeastward into the area this
evening a few showers will be possible for KSBN through 07z Mon
and KFWA is expected to remain dry through the TAF period.
Mainly VFR conditions for both sites should continue through at
least 07-08z before cigs lower slightly to MVFR levels and KFWA
may take a bit longer for the cigs there to lower as the trough
progresses. With ample surface mixing not expecting mist or fog
development and vsbys should remain P6SM outside of rain showers
at KSBN which could lower vsbys temporarily with any heavier
showers but low confidence on that outcome.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Andersen
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 1:19 PM EDT---------------
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