LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 16, 12:08 PM EDT508
FXUS63 KLMK 161608
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1208 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Patchy frost likely this morning, with temperatures in the low-
to-mid 30s expected across much of the area.
* Widespread frost is likely on Thursday morning, with sub-freezing
temperatures possible in rural areas and river valleys.
* Areas of frost possible once again Friday morning. Beautiful
weather over the weekend with slowly warming temperatures.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1208 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024
Widespread frost this morning in rural areas and light frost
reported within urban areas. Given persistence and better conditions
tonight and Thursday morning for frost development, a Frost Advisory
has been issued for tonight. Temperatures have a better chance of
dropping into the upper 20s, specifically in our far eastern
counties. A Freeze Warning has been issued in these areas. We will
continue to monitor and evaluate conditions, and if necessary, will
upgrade other areas to a Freeze Warning. At this time, forecast
confidence is lower in other areas.
Otherwise, a diurnal Cu field is developing over the region and a
band of clouds originating from Lake Michigan is streaming overhead.
These clouds will help to limit some heating, keeping temperatures
in the upper 50s. The current forecast remains on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024
This Morning...
There is currently a spread of around 10 degrees between the warmest
and coolest temperatures across the FA. In sheltered locations where
clouds have cleared, temperatures are generally in the low-to-mid
30s, while areas which have seen a persistent light NW wind and/or
clouds remain in the low 40s. While clouds currently over the Lake
Cumberland and Bluegrass region should dissipate and move south,
another plume of low-mid clouds coming off of Lake Michigan will
arrive in our southern IN counties toward sunrise. While the
aforementioned light NW wind will likely limit frost development,
would still expect sheltered locations to see frost development over
the next several hours.
Today...
Surface high pressure currently centered near Omaha will slide
southeast later today, with N/NW low-level winds expected on the
east side of the high across central KY and southern IN. This
northerly flow will continue to bring moisture from the above-
referenced lake effect band, especially around 850 mb. Once daytime
heating begins, this should facilitate the development of bands of
stratocumulus clouds, especially between the I-65 and I-75
corridors. This makes temperature forecasts tricky for today, as
less (more) cloud cover will allow for warmer (cooler) temperatures.
In southwestern portions of the FA, where more sunshine is expected,
will go with highs around 60 degrees. For the northeastern two-
thirds of the area, will advertise highs in the mid-to-upper 50s,
though areas which see denser cloud cover may struggle to get out of
the low 50s. Moisture depth shouldn't be enough for precipitation
development, with subsidence expected in the mid-levels of the
atmosphere.
Tonight...
The surface high pressure should make it into the Ohio Valley
tonight, with winds expected to calm during the mid-to-late evening
hours. Forecast soundings show the stratocu layer being a bit
stubborn to clear along the I-75 corridor, but once it does, good
radiational cooling conditions would be expected across the area.
Have gone colder than NBM guidance for low temperatures tonight
given its tendency to overestimate temperatures with this setup,
especially in the river valleys, where temperatures could fall into
the upper 20s. Elsewhere, generally have low-to-mid 30s, with upper
30s in the warmest parts of the Louisville metro. Tonight should be
a better setup for widespread frost development than this morning,
given lighter winds and less concern about cloud cover. At this
time, we're going to hold off on issuing any frost/freeze headlines
for tonight to avoid confusion with ongoing products; however,
confidence is fairly high that at least another area-wide frost
advisory will be needed.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024
A fairly cool, dry airmass will remain in place on Thursday. Sfc
high pressure will be positioned directly overhead. Heights aloft
continue to climb late in the week as upper level ridging amplifies
over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Sfc high pressure shifts over
the Upper Ohio Valley Thu into Fri, allowing return flow on the
backside of the high to advect warmer air into the region. Expect
Thursday to be the coolest day of the period, with gradually warming
temperatures after that. Thursday afternoon temperatures will reach
the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Thursday night will again be chilly and frosty, with lows in the low
to mid 30s. Temperatures will top out in the mid 60s to near 70 F on
Friday. Skies will remain clear during this time frame.
High pressure lingers over the region this weekend in a blocking
pattern. Meanwhile, a closed upper low is forecast to spin over the
Four Corners region. Again, each day should be slightly warmer than
the last. Morning lows will still be cool in the 30s to low 40s.
Saturday highs are forecast to reach the low 70s, with low to mid
70s on Sunday. Dry weather, with clear skies and light winds
continues.
Early next week still looks mostly dry. Forecast confidence is
relatively high even into early next week. The western US low is
forecast to lift northeast across the central Plains as the eastern
ridge deamplifies. This weak system could bring a very small chance
for rain by Tue-Wed of next week, but will only carry a 10% chance
for rain at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024
A band of stratus clouds coming off of Lake Michigan is approaching
SDF and HNB at this hour. Later this morning and into the early
afternoon hours, coverage of stratocu in the vicinity of this band
should increase, particularly at SDF/LEX/RGA. It is still uncertain
whether or not coverage will be sufficient for a ceiling, but cloud
bases should be around 4-5 kft with this band of clouds. Stratus
will gradually dissipate this evening, with coverage lingering the
longest at LEX and RGA.
Later this morning, winds will pick up out of the N/NW, with
sustained winds generally between 6-12 kt for the late morning and
early-to-mid afternoon hours. Winds should become light and variable
this evening into tonight as high pressure moves over the region.
Patchy fog development cannot be ruled out Thursday morning, but
confidence is too low for mention in this forecast.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM
CDT/ Thursday for KYZ023>035-038>040-045>047-053>055-
061>065-070>076.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM
CDT/ Thursday for KYZ036-037-041>043-048-049-056-057-066-
067-077-078-081-082.
IN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM
CDT/ Thursday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SRM
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...CSG
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 16, 12:08 PM EDT---------------
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