PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 2:05 PM EDT806
FXUS61 KPBZ 151805
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
205 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and unsettled weather is expected through midweek under
upper troughing. Frost and freezing conditions at night will be
possible for many this week. Warm and dry weather returns over
the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Showery conditions continue this morning and afternoon,
tapering later this evening.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Expect showery weather and cool temps to continue throughout
the day, with highs remaining 10-15 degrees below normal for
this time of year. Because of instability and cold air aloft,
small hail and graupel has been reported in more rigorous
showers. Chances of this frozen precipitation will hang around
through sunset. The higher elevations in northeast WV (namely
eastern Tucker County) could see some snow mix in with the rain
given cold temperatures aloft and highs this afternoon hovering
in the upper 30s to low 40s. Little accumulation is expected
outside of a possible dusting on grassy or elevated surfaces.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Patchy frost and even a few pockets of below-freezing
temperatures will be possible tonight if skies clear and winds
relax enough. Frost/freeze headlines may be needed.
- Lake enhanced showers return to the area during the day
Wednesday.
- Additional frost and freeze headlines may be needed Wednesday
night, once again conditional on cloud cover.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The diurnal trend will continue with showers as activity tapers
late this evening into tonight. Temperatures drop into the mid 30s
for much of the area overnight and, if enough clearing can
occur and winds relax, another round of frost/freeze headlines
may be needed. Confidence remains low in this occurring,
however, with the primary failure mechanism being lake-effect
clouds (given the prevailing low-level northwest flow) and
models have struggled to handle lingering stratocu decks in
recent days. The latest NBM guidance suggests a roughly 30-50%
chance for temperatures dropping to freezing outside of river
valleys and urban areas, while the HREF remains less bullish
with a <20% chance of that occurring except for higher
elevations east of Pittsburgh where it shows a 20-40% chance.
The upper trough pushes east of the area Wednesday night as a
cutoff low pinches off over the Mid Atlantic coast to our
southeast. Low-level flow remains out of the north-northwest
under that pattern, meaning that once again temperatures
Wednesday night will depend on the thickness and coverage of any
lake-effect clouds that develop. Any areas that are able to
clear out should dip near or below freezing and may require
frost/freeze headlines.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Cooler and unsettled weather through Friday
- Frost/Freeze products may continue to be issued.
- Dry weather and near to above average temperatures return
Friday into Sunday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Model ensembles indicate the closed low over the Mid Atlantic
will quickly push eastward over the Atlantic as a ridge axis
builds upstream over the central CONUS and Ohio Valley. As a
result, quiet and clear conditions will likely return with
above average temperatures expected by the weekend.
General ensemble consensus is that the warm and dry conditions
continue into early next week as the upper ridge shifts east of
the area. Unsettled conditions could return just beyond the long
term as ensembles are suggesting an upper trough ejects
eastward from the Mountain West across the central CONUS during
that time. However, there is still far too much spread among
ensemble members to say with confidence anything about timing
or local impacts.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered showers are possible through the remainder of the day
at all terminals, but are most likely for areas north and west.
This is due to the cool northwesterly flow over warm Lake Erie
creating some instability and upward lift. Some more intense
showers may produce small hail or graupel.
This evening, chances of rain are expected to lower as ceilings
rise. Very late tonight/early tomorrow morning, ceilings will
begin to drop to MVFR conditions with some locations potential
seeing IFR. ZZV is the only terminal where showers could push
through in the morning and then again in the afternoon.
The MVFR ceilings will persist through the majority of the day
tomorrow. Late morning/early afternoon, winds are expected to
pick up, with most terminals expecting northwesterly gusts
between 16-18KT.
.Outlook...
High pressure is expected to filter in on Thursday with a
continuous northwesterly flow. This along with rising heights
will bring prolonged VFR conditions and dry weather back to our
terminals.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ009-016-
074-076.
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for OHZ048-057.
WV...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for WVZ510>513.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Cermak/Rackley
NEAR TERM...Cermak/Hefferan/Milcarek/Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Cermak/Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Cermak/Hefferan/Shallenberger
AVIATION...Lupo
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 2:05 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
