CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 16, 10:31 AM EDT461
FXUS61 KCLE 161431
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1031 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A trough will move east of the area throughout today as high
pressure begins to build in from the west. The high will settle
over the region through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain showers continue across Northeast Ohio with a favorable
fetch in a cold air advection regime this morning. Showers
should continue with favorable thermodynamics over the lake
until the ridge builds into the region this afternoon, allowing
for rain chances to taper with more marginal temperatures. Have
updated PoPs and sky coverage forecasts to reflect this through
early evening. Will begin evaluating for tonight's frost and
freeze potential and headline needs.
Previous Discussion...
Upper trough will slowly begin to exit to the east today as a
ridge and surface high start to build in from the west. Lake
effect showers will continue across NE OH and maybe NW PA
through this morning and into the afternoon, although intensity
is lower than previous days and coverage will dwindle
throughout the day. Upstream moisture should be cut off by late
afternoon or early evening which will allow any lingering precip
to taper off through tonight with dry weather anticipated near
or shortly after midnight. Cloud cover will be on the decline as
well and periods of sunshine are likely in between showers.
Locations west of the I-71 corridor will experience mostly sunny
to sunny skies today.
Today's highs will be in the slightly warmer (albeit below
normal) upper 40s to mid 50s. The warmest temperatures will be
located in the sunnier western locations. Tonight will be one of
the coolest nights of the week with overnight lows plummeting
into the low to mid 30s across the majority of the area (the
only exception will be upper 30s to lower 40s along the
immediate lakeshore). There's still some uncertainty in how much
skies clear across NE OH and NW PA, but most of the CWA has at
least some potential for areas of or widespread frost and/or a
freeze late tonight into early Thursday morning. Widespread
frost/freeze headlines will likely be issued once this morning's
headlines expire.
The ridge/high will take control for Thursday and anticipate dry
weather with plenty of sunshine for the end of the near term
period. Daytime temperatures will slowly begin to recover and
anticipate highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The weather pattern for the end of the week and into the weekend
will be very quiet. An upper level ridge of high pressure will
stretch from the Great Lakes across the Ohio Valley down towards the
Tennessee Valley Thursday night and Friday. At the surface, high
pressure will be centered near the Upper Ohio Valley region Thursday
night. Temperatures will fall into the lower to upper 30s Thursday
night with patchy to areas of frost likely. High temperatures on
Friday will be seasonable in the lower to middle 60s with sunny
skies. It will not be as cool Friday night with overnight lows in
the middle 30 to lower 40s. High pressure will remain in control of
the weather pattern on Saturday with beautiful weather and sunny
skies. High temps on Saturday will be in the middle to lower
70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast will favor a slowly retreating high pressure
with more quiet and fair weather conditions. Temperatures will
gradually moderate into early next week. Highs are forecast to range
from the upper 60s to middle 70s Sunday through Tuesday. A cold
front may approach by Tuesday night or Wednesday with a slight
chance for rain showers.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
MVFR conditions in lake effect clouds/showers will continue
through late this morning or early this afternoon before rain
chances diminish later this afternoon into the evening.
KCLE/KCAK will experience the most persistent non-VFR
conditions today since a band of showers will be located over or
in the vicinity of these terminals, but KYNG may be clipped by
a few showers today. Lower stratus is expected for a brief
period at KERI/KMFD this morning but generally expect conditions
to improve within the next few hours. Broken mid-level ceilings
will most likely persist at NE OH/NW PA terminals through
tonight, but VFR should prevail areawide. KTOL/KFDY will have
VFR conditions through the entire TAF period.
Winds will be out of the northwest at 6 to 12 knots with
isolated gusts to 20 knots possible this morning and afternoon.
Sustained winds will be as high as 15 knots at KCLE until about
21Z today. Winds become light and variable from 00Z onward.
Outlook...VFR expected Thursday through the weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories are in effect this morning with all headlines
dropping by late this afternoon. Northerly winds 15 to 25 knots will
continue through early afternoon and waves 3 to 7 feet. Winds and
waves will start to decrease late this afternoon and evening. High
pressure moves in tonight and Thursday with light west winds 5 to 10
knots. Very nice marine conditions will move in for Thursday through
the weekend with a light southerly or southwesterly wind 5 to 10
knots and waves 1 to 2 feet. After the SCA expire later today, no
additional headlines are expected through the weekend.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
LEZ144>148.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Maines/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...Griffin
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 16, 10:31 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
