LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 18, 10:32 AM CDT ...NEW UPDATE...717
FXUS64 KLIX 181532 AAB
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1032 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
...NEW UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1022 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Locally, convection continues to drift eastward generally
offshore. The latest infrared satellite imagery shows cloud tops
warming quickly with the convective complex over the Gulf. Indeed,
rainfall rates and overall decay of the MCS has been the trend of
the last hour or two. One small cluster of storms still resides
over Terrebonne Bay at the time of this discussion. This too
should decrease overtime as much of the forcing continues
downstream. So far, CAMs have done well capturing the exit of the
convection...so will allow them to lead the POP/QPF near term
through early afternoon. Outside of this, no real adjustments were
made in the midpoint outside of dropping the FFA as well as
adding fog overnight tonight in the fog favored spots across MS
and the FL Parishes of LA. With the wet soils think radiation fog
may develop, especially if we clear out overnight. That would be
the main limiting factor, which is still pretty low
confidence...so we'll mention patchy fog for now until a stronger
signal is realized between now and Sunday AM. (Frye)
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Frontal boundary, such as it is, is likely somewhere near or south
of a Hattiesburg to Baton Rouge to Lake Charles line. Dew points
south of that line are well into the 70s, while in the 60s to the
north. Most of the strong thunderstorms remain over the Gulf of
Mexico this morning, but there is a band of storms over the Gulf
to the south of Lake Charles, that if they continue their current
northeastward movement, could produce a training scenario
producing heavy rainfall over portions of the Flood Watch area
over the next 6 hours. Precipitable water value on the special 03Z
LIX sounding was still 1.87 inches, so heavy rainfall still a
concern. For this reason, plan to hold onto the watch until
expiration, unless rain moves out of the area sooner. Pretty much
all guidance has rain moving offshore in the 15z-18z window or
sooner with the trough axis shifting to the east of the area. May
take until late afternoon or early evening to completely clear,
however. Beyond sunset this evening, the only real concern for the
remainder of the short term forecast period will be the potential
for some patchy radiation type fog around sunrise Sunday.
The rather wet ground may aid in the development of a cumulus
field across the area on Sunday, but shouldn't have a major impact
on temperatures. As temperature guidance is fairly well clustered,
won't depart from the NBM numbers.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Upper ridging that will move from northern Mexico into Texas on
Sunday will continue to work eastward into the Lower Mississippi
River Valley at midweek, and remain over the northern Gulf through
the end of the week. A shortwave may suppress it somewhat
southward by Thursday or Friday, but it still appears that
significant precipitation will be hard to come by through the end
of the work week next week after this morning's rain. Unlikely to
be much in the way of change in temperatures from day to day
during the workweek, with readings generally 3 to 5 degrees above
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Convection this morning will lead to brief reductions in VIS/CIG.
MVFR conditions will be possible during this time. This activity
will move out from west to east with convection moving out of the
GPT area by mid morning or so. Beyond this VFR conditions are
anticipated through the rest of today and into tonight. Will need
to watch for low stratus/fog developing overnight tonight,
especially over the fog favored terminals such as MCB and HUM.
(Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Will cancel the Small Craft Advisory with forecast issuance, as
any winds greater than 15 knots or so will be convectively related
this morning. Thunderstorms should even move out of the coastal
waters later today or this evening.
Beyond today, winds are likely to remain below 15 knots through
much or all of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 84 65 89 66 / 10 10 0 0
BTR 89 70 93 72 / 10 0 0 0
ASD 86 69 92 69 / 80 0 0 0
MSY 85 72 90 74 / 90 0 0 0
GPT 82 69 90 70 / 90 10 0 0
PQL 84 68 92 67 / 90 10 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for LAZ036-037-039-046>048-071-
083-085.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 18, 10:32 AM CDT ...NEW UPDATE...---------------
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