ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 12, 9:07 AM EDT729
FXUS61 KILN 121307
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
907 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sag south into the southern Great Lakes today
where it will stall out. For tonight into Sunday, a wave of low
pressure will ripple east along this front. Meanwhile, another
cold front trailing the low will push southeast through the
remainder of the region. Below normal temperature are then
expected as we head into the new week as a large scale mid level
trough settles across the eastern half of the the U.S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front will sag slowly southeast toward the area through
this afternoon. Ahead of this, high level clouds will continue
to overspread our area through the day, leading to filtered
sunshine. With southerly flow persisting ahead of the front,
highs today will be mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
For tonight, mid level energy is forecast to dig southeast into
the Great Lakes region. This will aid in perturbing a wave of
low pressure which is expected to traverse east along
aforementioned frontal boundary into northwest Ohio by morning.
Models have trended farther north with the developing
precipitation shield, thanks to a 925-850 mb modest low level
jet which will focus its low level convergence mainly north of
the boundary. Thus, much of the expected shower and embedded
thunderstorm activity should occur mostly north of the forecast
area. Have kept some PoPs across the far north due to some
uncertainty at this point. It will be warm under a low level
southerly flow with lows ranging from the upper 50s to the lower
60s.
On Sunday, the low is expected to ripple east across northern
Ohio during the day. Meanwhile, another cold front trailing from
this low will push southeast across our region. The front may
trigger a low chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during
the afternoon hours across our east/southeast zones. Diurnal
mixing and a tightening pressure gradient will create breezy to
locally windy conditions, especially in the afternoon as the
front pushes through. Winds may gust between 25 and 35 mph at
times. Locations south and east of the front initially should
warm up nicely while locations in our northwest will begin to
cool down compared to today's highs. Highs will range from the
lower 70s northwest to the mid 70s to the lower 80s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
While the cold front is expected to have moved through by the
start of the long term period, two separate shortwave features
keep the weather unsettled for Monday and Tuesday. Breezy
conditions, cooler temperatures, and scattered shower activity
likely create quite dreary conditions to kick off the work week.
Temperatures are well below normal with high temperatures
struggling to climb out of the 50s both days. Surface high
pressure eventually builds in from the west Tuesday night,
presenting the first opportunity for frost into Wednesday
morning.
Wednesday is a bit of a transition day as the surface high
pressure slides to the south of the area. Surface winds
initially start from the northwest before eventually becoming
more westerly Wednesday evening. Confidence for frost is highest
Wednesday night into Thursday morning as winds decrease below 5
mph with mostly clear to clear skies expected.
Thursday, a mid-level ridge begins to strengthen over the Ohio
Valley supporting continued dry conditions and a warming trend
into the weekend. Due to anomalous trough and associated
continental polar air mass, the warming trend will take a few
days to modify the air mass before it eventually climbs back to
near normal temperature wise. High temperatures are currently
forecast to be near normal for mid-October by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For today, a cold front will stall out across the southern
Great Lakes and will be located north of the terminals. Some mid
and high level clouds are expected for our region. Winds will
be from the south/southwest between 6 and 12 knots.
For tonight, mid level energy is forecast to dig southeast into
the Great Lakes region. This will aid in perturbing a wave of
low pressure which is expected to traverse east along
aforementioned frontal boundary into northwest Ohio by morning.
Models have trended farther north with the developing
precipitation shield, thanks to a 925-850 mb modest low level
jet which will focus its low level convergence mainly north of
the boundary. Thus, for the terminals, SCT mid/high level clouds
are expected. Winds will remain out of the south between 6 and
12 knots. Due to the modest low level jet overtop the region, a
period of LLWS is expected and has been placed in the forecast.
OUTLOOK...Gusty west to northwest winds to 30 knots expected
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. MVFR ceilings possible
Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...Hickman
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 12, 9:07 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
