JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 12, 10:41 PM EDT518
FXUS63 KJKL 130241
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1041 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms is possible Sunday
afternoon. The greatest threat being damaging wind and hail.
- Patchy to widespread frost is expected each night next week
through Thursday night.
- Isolated instances of freezing temperatures are possible Monday
night but will become more widespread Tuesday night and again
Wednesday night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2024
High clouds have pushed east this evening and we are left with
clear skies in most locations. Overall the adjustments made
earlier to the ridge/valley splits are holding well. No big
changes needed for this update.
UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2024
We have a few high clouds moving through eastern Kentucky this
hour but outside this quiet weather persists. Given the mostly
clear skies and calm conditions did update grids to deal with the
ridge/valley splits already being seen on the latest trends at
the valley sites. Outside this little changes were needed for this
update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 349 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2024
Current surface analysis has high pressure firmly entrenched over
much of southeastern CONUS. To the north, an east-west oriented
surface stationary front is in place from New England back to the
Central Plains. Locally, sunny skies and pleasant temperatures in
place and will remain in place through the afternoon into much of
the overnight.
Aloft, zonal flow will give way to a developing shortwave that's
projected to dive southeast into the Upper Midwest tonight. At the
surface, a surface low and accompanying cold front will track
southeast toward the Commonwealth and be at the doorstep of the
early Sunday morning. Ahead of the front, southwesterly winds will
develop bringing some pre-frontal breezy winds mid-Sunday morning.
By early afternoon Sunday, the front should be on the doorstep of
the CWA and will slowly move through the CWA through the afternoon
and evening hours. SPC has a marginal risk for severe weather Sunday
afternoon as vertical dynamics are in place to support strong storm
development. While both speed and directional shear are in place,
moisture is largely lacking and could be the ultimate limiting
factor both the PoP and severe storm coverage. Once FROPA occurs,
high pressure will build back into to region but upper-level
northwesterly flow will remain in place leading to the first major
temperature drop of the fall season.
Overall, the period will be highlighted by quiet weather but a
surface low will bring slight PoP and a cool down for the end of the
period. High temperatures are expected to climb into the upper-70s
today and low to mid-80s for Sunday. Overnight lows tonight will
fall into the upper-40s to low-50s with even colder temperatures
expected Sunday night into Monday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2024
The large scale flow pattern aloft to begin the extended will
feature a large and well developed trough of low pressure diving
southeastward out of southeastern Canada. As this system moves
further south, and weak waves rotate around it, we can expect to see
isolated to scattered rain showers moving through the area on
Tuesday. With the parent system moving fairly quickly, we should see
the last showers move out of the area by 0Z Wednesday, with the best
chances for precipitation occurring Tuesday afternoon, as the trough
moves closest to us. Once the trough exits to our east Tuesday
evening, a large and strong ridge of high pressure will move in
behind it, and should settle over the region through the end of the
week. With this ridge, we will see light winds, clear skies, and dry
conditions around the forecast area. This will provide ideal
conditions for both ridge valley temperature splits and late night
and early morning valley fog and frost. Temperatures will be well
below normal all week, with daytime highs topping out in the 50s and
60s through Thursday, before a modest warm up takes place Friday and
Saturday, as winds swing around to the south and the air mass
finally modifies. Highs should rebound into the upper 60s and lower
70s. Nightly lows will be quite cold throughout will be mostly in
the 30s around the area. The coldest nights will likely be Tuesday
night and Wednesday night, when the ridge will nearly overhead.
Widespread frost looks more and more likely mid-week, with a hard
freeze not outside the realm of possibility at this point either.
That being said, the only weather hazards of note in the extended
will be the cold temperatures and the potential for frost and freeze.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2024
VFR skies will persist through the period. We will see an
increase in mid and high clouds through the period ahead of the
next storm system. There will also be an increase low level jet
ahead of this feature prompting the need for LLWS in the TAF sites
late tonight into early Sunday morning. The winds will increase
through the morning and afternoon Sunday aiding in breezy
conditions, with winds of 5-10 knots and gusts of 15-20 knots out
of the southwest.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 12, 10:41 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
